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Foreign Policy Research Institute

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Will Ukraine have time to start EU membership negotiations before Hungary’s presidency?

This is a truly pivotal moment for Ukraine's path to the EU. On the one hand, Ukraine is about to reach the start of accession negotiations, but at the same time, more and more challenges are emerging. In this context, the Department of International Relations and Foreign Policy of the Educational and Research Institute of International Relations of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv together with the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies, with the assistance of the Directorate General for Foreign Missions, organised a roundtable on 3 April to mark the 80th anniversary of the Department of IRFP on the topic: "Ukraine in the EU Accession Negotiations: Challenges and Prospects for Implementing European Legislation".

A lot of expert opinions were presented during the event, including Ivan Nahirniak, Advisor at the Centre for Economic Recovery, CIVITTA partner, expert on European integration, PhD in Political Science, who noted that a lively dialogue process took place between February and June 2022. However, this period was caused by serious circumstances, in particular, the full scale of the invasion, which led to almost half of civil servants hiding in shelters or abroad. Despite this, thousands of issues related to European Union rights and the functioning of the state had to be resolved. This was an extremely difficult task. However, thanks to the joint efforts of the government and the expert community, the questionnaire was successfully completed, which ultimately allowed Ukraine to obtain the status of a candidate for membership in the European Union.

In June 2022, a decision was made and Ukraine was given seven political steps. With the successful implementation of these steps, the European Council could start negotiations on Ukraine's EU membership by the end of 2023. However, this is only the beginning of the process, as the negotiation process has several stages. The first stage is currently underway - the official screening, during which the European Commission explains to Ukraine how EU law works in all 30 chapters. This phase will last until the end of May, after which a new sub-phase will begin, during which Ukraine will present its vision of implementing EU law in bilateral meetings with the European Commission. This is a big task for the government and other branches of power.

The first intergovernmental conference is expected to be held in June 2024, after the European Parliament elections and before Hungary takes over the presidency of the EU Council. This will allow Ukraine to officially start negotiations and work with the European Union to open the first cluster. To do so, Ukraine will need to prepare three roadmaps, which cover public administration, rule of law, and law enforcement sector reforms. In general, the average duration of the negotiation process is 7.5 to 8.5 years from the moment of obtaining candidate status to the conclusion of negotiations.

The negotiations we are now entering are based on the methodology developed in 2020 for the Western Balkans. At that time, the enlargement policy was not relevant for Ukraine, and the European Union aimed to create preconditions for the Balkan states to open and close negotiating chapters. It will be difficult to expect a dynamic negotiation process in Ukraine, as the entire procedure for opening and closing chapters depends on the decisions of the European Council. This could complicate our path to EU membership, as each decision of the Council could delay the process.

We are currently seeing ideas for reforming enlargement policy and institutional changes in the EU. Ursula von der Leyen presented a paper on this in March. But as a scholar, Mr Nahirniak is disappointed because he does not see any ambitious ideas there, except for the idea of gradual integration, which may be useful for countries such as the Western Balkans, Georgia and Moldova, but for Ukraine, which already has an association agreement, it may not be enough. There is also the question of the European Commission's autonomy in opening negotiating chapters. This is a positive step, but still, we need to insist on more autonomy in decision-making of the European Commission to avoid blocking the process.

Also, we should work with our neighbouring countries and look for alternative accession paths that would not be so painful for key players in the EU. Without a doubt, this is an important moment for Ukraine, and we have an ongoing dialogue with the European Commission and member states on changing the enlargement methodology.

Veronika Movchan, Deputy Director of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, drew attention to the economic aspect. She noted that the conversation about farmers and the EU's common agricultural policy is really specific and requires attention. On the one hand, we are dealing with a powerful Ukrainian agricultural sector, and on the other hand, we are dealing with the growing costs of climate change adaptation. These costs, which Ukraine does not currently face, could become a significant factor in EU accession, but there is also the possibility that negotiations could be delayed.

However, looking at the broader context, Ukraine remains competitive as a country with great potential for development. Through agriculture and grain, Ukraine is already competitive, and even with climate change, it can remain so. However, sustainable development requires other components, such as human and physical capital, institutional structure and innovation.

In the area of technology, Ukraine still has a long way to go to catch up with developed EU countries and produce innovations at their level. This is an important aspect for development, and the government should pay due attention to it.

Overall, Ukraine has the potential to become a strong player in the world, but it needs to use all the opportunities offered by EU accession and actively work on developing its own sectors and innovations.

The loss of capital due to Russia's invasion has indeed become a major challenge for Ukraine. However, there is a positive side to this negative context: an opportunity to review and develop infrastructure, and to switch to new technologies in various sectors, such as energy and metals.

In terms of capital recovery, the world needs to understand what is needed and where to find capital for recovery. Investment flows and the use of Russian assets for these purposes are a prospect, but it is important to ensure the safety of this process.

The worst situation may be in the labour market, but it is worth noting that Ukraine can change this situation. Before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine had a poor demographic situation, but it still had a significant population of around 44-45 million. Now it is important to change the approach to the labour market and work on attracting and retaining labour to effectively restore the economy and develop the country.

Ukraine should be realistic about its potential to join the European Union. We currently account for a very small share of trade with the EU, and our economy, while competitive in some sectors, is far from being a global leader. However, we do have certain advantages, for example, as a competitive exporter of grain and other agricultural products.

Despite the need for large investments to join the EU, our challenges, including war and destruction, allow us to receive significant international assistance. However, even if we do not join the EU, integration with European standards could be beneficial for us, as it would reduce the costs of future adaptation.

On the reform side, Ukraine has already made significant efforts to meet European standards through the Association Agreement. Our efforts should be focused on the gains promised by this agreement, not on the fear of how we will cope with the costs. We already have significant achievements, especially in the area of environmental standards, and we must continue on this path.

Vadym Halaychuk, First Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Ukraine's Integration into the European Union, shared the institutional perspective on European integration. He noted that the Verkhovna Rada plays a key role in the legislative process, adapting legislation to EU standards and fulfilling the obligations assumed under the Association Agreement. Thanks to the full political support and extensive experience gained over the past ten years, it has created optimistic conditions for moving forward quickly and efficiently.

In addition, the President is preparing a decree on the structure of the negotiation process, and negotiating teams are already being formed. The European partners are looking forward to the start of the negotiations, and the screening sessions that are currently underway are helping to understand the process of implementing European standards. Much of the EU legislation has already been implemented, but there is still work to be done.

Ukraine understands its unique challenges and the opportunities they create. Successful reform not only helps it, but also stimulates change in the European Union itself. The EU's assistance to Ukraine is unprecedented, demonstrating its support for its European path.

Officials expect talks to begin in June. While the elections may be a distraction, they are seeking to speed up the negotiation process and secure support from European institutions. It is important not to miss the moment and to make the most of this time to continue the European path.

Another important issue is cooperation with specialists and experts in the work of the Verkhovna Rada. Although their inputs may be of high quality, the problem is the lack of responsibility for the preparation of final documents. One possible solution would be to review the programmes that hire these experts and change their terms and conditions so that they are directly involved in the work of the Verkhovna Rada. The remuneration system could also be reviewed and the salaries of the Verkhovna Rada staff could be increased to bring them in line with those of experts working for external programmes.

In terms of cooperation with academic institutions, it is important to consider their participation in recruitment and joint project development. Such cooperation can help solve specific problems and ensure the exchange of information and ideas. With regard to the participation of MPs in negotiation groups, this can be an important step to ensure efficiency and speed of decision-making. However, it is important to ensure that the participation of politicians does not interfere with the work of experts.

Regarding the political situation in the Verkhovna Rada itself, this is an important issue and work should be done on changes to the rules of procedure to ensure fast and effective decision-making. This could include revising procedures and introducing new rules that would speed up the process of adopting laws related to European integration.

It is also important to ensure a broad exchange of information and experience between the Verkhovna Rada and its partners in the European Union to make the most of the opportunities of European integration for Ukraine's development.

Based on this, it can be said that the process of Ukraine's accession to the European Union is indeed complex and highly regulated. The need to meet a number of criteria in order to avoid the destruction of the common market makes this process complex and requires significant efforts from the candidates.

Indeed, it is important to bear in mind that decisions on EU enlargement must be taken unanimously, and even a perfect reform may not guarantee the agreement of all member states. However, an initiative to change the enlargement methodology, which would require a qualified majority decision to open negotiating chapters, could reduce the possibility of blocking the start of negotiations. This could be a significant incentive for other candidate states to participate in the negotiations.

At present, the main obstacle to Ukraine's accession may be the Hungarian presidency, which is increasingly distancing itself from Brussels and will definitely oppose Ukraine's integration. However, the positive thing is that not only Kyiv but also most European countries are aware of this. That is why politicians from various European countries are already making statements about the need to speed up the start of negotiations. And, given the preliminary estimates of experts, Ukraine has every chance to make it if it really shows perseverance and initiative, as well as commitment to further reform.