At the beginning of May, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy paid a visit to Finland. During his trip, the leader of Ukraine took part in the Nordic-Ukrainian summit and held a number of bilateral meetings with representatives of the Nordic states. The main topics for discussion were military aid, in particular, the creation of an "aviation coalition", the issue of punishment of war criminals, as well as compensation for damage caused by Russia.
At first glance, Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to Finland may seem unexpected, since most of the foreign trips of the President of Ukraine made to the leading countries of the Euro-Atlantic space and those states providing the largest volumes of aid: the USA, Great Britain, Germany, Poland, France. However, the current geopolitical realities on the continent point to the growing role of the Scandinavian countries. As John Chipman, director of the IISS think tank, noted, the balance of power in has tilted to the East with the Franco-German partnership having to accommodate the interests of states on the front line of the bloc. "It's the Nordics and Baltic states, now united almost in a single strategic theatre with the Poles and Czechs, that will determine European security priorities and continue to insist on an important response to Russia's invasion,"[1] the scientist said.
With the accession of Finland and the future accession of Sweden to NATO, the Baltic Sea has become an internal lake of the Alliance. The countries of the region will feel more protected, while Russia has somewhat lost its dominant position compared to the Baltic countries. The entry into the North Atlantic Alliance of Sweden and Finland can encourage the Nordic countries to a more active foreign policy, as the officially established alliance obligations place on these countries a greater responsibility for security on the continent, which will benefit all NATO countries and Ukraine.
Scandinavian countries are reliable partners of Ukraine. These states consistently provide political support within international platforms, economic assistance, and have already demonstrated their readiness to provide Ukraine with the necessary military support. For example, before President Zelenskyy's visit, Finland provided 15 packages of military aid worth almost one billion euros. During the meeting of the leaders of Ukraine and Finland, the preparation of the next, 16th defense package was announced.
Ukraine also receives significant support from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. In the spring of 2023, the Danish government decided to create a fund in the amount of 1 billion dollars for military, civil and business assistance to Ukraine. The main part of the funds - more than 767 million dollars - will be directed to military aid. (1) In April, the country's leadership also promised to supply Ukraine with 19 Caesar self-propelled guns. In addition, together with Germany and the Netherlands, Denmark promised to provide the Armed Forces with at least 100 German Leopard 1 battle tanks. Norway, in turn, only in recent months in particular provided 8 Leopard 2 tanks, together with Great Britain, the country undertook to transfer to Ukraine 8 M270 long-range anti-aircraft missile system and 3 ARTHUR artillery guidance radars. Also during his visit to Norway, Verkhovna Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk announced that Ukraine will receive more NASAMS air defense systems. The contribution of the Scandinavian states is smaller than that of the leading countries, but they have demonstrated their willingness to transfer high-tech samples of equipment. The total cost of national aid packages from the countries of Northern Europe, provided to Ukraine since February 2022, is approximately 4.4 billion euros.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy probably expects that the countries of Northern Europe can also play a certain role in creating an aviation coalition. Norway has sold its last 32 F-16 fighter jets to Romania at the end of 2022. The F-16 manufactured by Lockheed Martin is the most massive aircraft of the fourth generation, and it is precisely these aircraft that Ukraine hopes to receive. Denmark still has them in service. The country, at least, can contribute to the training of Ukrainian pilots.
Sweden is a producer of its own fighter jets. Even before the full-scale invasion, Swedish Gripen aircraft were considered in Ukraine as a possible option for strengthening the Ukrainian air force. Now, in the face of a full-scale invasion and a critical need for more modern fighters to protect Ukrainian skies and conduct effective counter-offensive actions, the Ukrainian leadership is looking for all possible options to strengthen the capabilities of the domestic air force. Gripen, in this regard, could become a high-quality addition to the fighters available in Ukraine, but currently, the Swedish leadership has rejected the possibility of supplying them to Ukraine. Similarly, the leadership of Finland refused to supply its own planes: President Sauli Niinisto mentioned two reasons, firstly, Finland will not be able to hand over its Hornet fighters to Ukraine until it receives a replacement for them, as it needs to protect its territory from the Russian Federation. And secondly, the transfer of the F-18 Hornet will require, according to the head of Finland, the creation of many structures for maintenance, if Ukraine also receives fighters of another type, which could be problematic.
Cooperation in the military-technical sphere is important, however, the Euro-Atlantic path remains no less important for Ukraine. In the context of the opening of negotiations on accession to the European Union, the position of the Scandinavian countries is of great importance. Denmark and Sweden belong to the so-called "frugal four" group, which previously opposed the increase of the EU budget and sought a balance between free trade and protectionism.[2] 2 other states of this group: the Netherlands and Austria are close partners of Sweden and Denmark. The rapprochement of Ukraine's position with the Scandinavian states can positively affect the position of other EU states in the context of Ukraine's potential accession.
Their support for Ukraine's accession to NATO is equally important. At a meeting in Helsinki on May 3, 2023, the presidents of Ukraine and Finland and the prime ministers of Denmark, Iceland, Norway and Sweden signed a joint statement in which they supported Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic aspirations, however, they avoided clear wording regarding the prospect of Ukraine's full membership in NATO and the EU in a short-term perspective. The states indicated that they will continue to support Ukraine in its efforts to implement the reform process and in meeting the requirements necessary for the earliest possible start of negotiations on accession to the EU. In the context of NATO, the states refer to the open door policy and the decision of the Bucharest Summit in 2008, expressing their intention to support Ukraine on its way to future membership. That is, they limited themselves to trivial traditional assurances that Ukrainians have been hearing for more than a quarter of a century.
However, next to these insignificant assurances, they had to admit that until the acquisition of full membership, the security of Ukraine is of great importance for the Alliance. This thesis indicates a change in the perception of Ukraine as a buffer state between NATO and Russia and the understanding of Northern European countries that the security of Ukraine and Europe is indivisible. The states of Northern Europe, however, did not dare to clearly express the position that Ukraine should become a member of NATO, as the CEE countries did. Probably, the position of the countries of Northern Europe regarding the potential membership of Ukraine in NATO has not yet been determined and will be finally agreed closer to the NATO summit in Vilnius. It also means their interest is keeping Ukraine in a buffer zone, using the country as an outpost of NATO's eastern flank, but outside of its collective defense.
At the same time, the Nordic countries expressed a clear position on the issues of restoring justice and rebuilding Ukraine. The states expressed their support for the initiative to create a Special Tribunal for the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine and emphasized their firm commitment to bring to justice those guilty of war and other brutal crimes. The statement also indicated that Nordic countries are encouraging other states to join and build international support for the creation of the tribunal. Considering the soft power of the countries of Northern Europe, their position can have a positive effect on the involvement of other states in the implementation of justice against Russian criminals. The countries confirmed their intention to further increase collective sanctions pressure on Russia, to intensify efforts to ensure the effective implementation of sanctions, prevention and countermeasures against circumvention of sanctions in and by third countries. Maintaining and strengthening the sanctions regime is tied to Russia's ability to continue the war.
In addition, states will work with others to develop mechanisms to compensate for losses, injuries and damages caused by Russian aggression. An important milestone for this is the international damage register, which was presented at the Council of Europe summit in Reykjavík. "The states will continue to explore appropriate options for the financing of a compensation mechanism, including a sound legal basis for the use of frozen and immobilized Russian assets, to support Ukraine’s reconstruction and for the purposes of reparation", the document states.
The support of the Nordic countries is an important component of Ukraine's fight against Russian aggression. The intensity of international visits between Ukraine and Northern European countries is very high. The states of the format provide an important political, economic and humanitarian support to Ukraine, and also take an active part in reconstruction. Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit is important for strengthening relations between Ukraine and the Nordic countries, which with the entry of Sweden and Finland will play an even greater role in ensuring European security. However, the joint statement adopted as the result of the event could have been more ambitious. On the one hand, Ukraine received assurances of maintaining comprehensive support on such important issues as the creation of a special tribunal, payment of reparations, sanctions, continuation of military aid, as well as ensuring the widest possible international participation in the implementation of the Ukrainian Peace Formula and in the Global Peace Summit. On the other hand, the wording regarding the future membership of Ukraine in the EU and NATO does not contain ambitious points often expressed by the leaders of the CEE states. On the eve of the summit in Vilnius, Ukraine needs the widest possible support from NATO member states. The countries of the Euro-Atlantic space already understand the indivisibility of Ukrainian security from the European one. However, the main step remains to be taken - to integrate Ukraine into the system of collective security.
Sources:
1. Данія підготувала ЗСУ дев’ятий пакет допомоги, 15.03.2023,
URL: https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/daniya- 1 pidgotuvala-zsu-dev-yatyj-paket-dopomogy
2. Catharina Sørensen, How the frugal four could grow in number and influence, 7 September 2020, European council on foreign relations,
URL: https://ecfr.eu/article/ commentary_how_the_frugal_four_could_grow_in_number_and_influence/