The European Commission has adopted a proposal for an implementing decision of the EU Council that welcomes the Ukraine Facility plan, a comprehensive strategy for reforms and investment in Ukraine for the next four years, the European Commission website reported on 15 April.
"Funding under the Facility will help Ukraine to support the work of the administration, pay salaries and pensions, provide essential public services, and support recovery and reconstruction while it continues to defend itself against Russian aggression," the statement said.[1]
It was noted that financial assistance will be provided on condition that Ukraine continues to support and implement effective democratic mechanisms.
"The Ukrainian Reform and Investment Strategy offers a solid basis for rebuilding a more modern and prosperous Ukraine on its path to the EU... With today's proposal, we are once again demonstrating that Europe will be with Ukraine for as long as it takes and that we are ready to provide the necessary financial support," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The Ukrainian plan identifies 69 reforms and 10 investments, broken down into 146 qualitative and quantitative indicators. The reforms proposed under the Ukrainian plan cover 15 areas, including energy, agriculture, transport, green and digital transition, human capital, as well as state-owned enterprises, business environment, public finance, and decentralisation.
In total, the project has a budget of €50 billion for 2024-2027 in February. These funds will be used to support the livelihoods, restore the Ukrainian state and carry out reforms on the path to EU membership.
In addition, the EU continues to look for ways to provide military support to Ukraine. Thus, the European Parliament accepted Guy Verhofstadt's proposal to postpone the vote on the EU Council funding to the next plenary session and demanded that Ukraine immediately receive air defence systems, in particular, Patriot. In his speech, Guy Verhofstadt expressed his disappointment with the situation in Ukraine and criticised the EU Council for its insufficient response to Russia's aggression.
"I am very concerned about what is happening in Ukraine. Over the past 20 days, we have seen numerous attacks by Russian forces on civilian towns, hospitals, power plants and infrastructure. Europe is opening its doors to Ukraine, but the EU Council cannot decide on the transfer of anti-missile systems to Ukraine," he said.
He proposed to postpone the vote on the Council's funding until the Council decides to provide Ukraine with Patriot missile defence systems. His proposal was supported by the majority of MPs, who voted in favour of postponing the vote until a decision on support for Ukraine is made.
It is also worth recalling that the European Union's Council of Foreign Ministers approved the allocation of €5 billion for military support to Ukraine. This decision was made on 18 March and published on the EU Council website. The funds will be allocated through the European Peace Facility (EPF). This will allow the EU to continue to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine by providing them with lethal and non-lethal military equipment and training for the Ukrainian military.
The support of its Western partners is currently quite important for Kyiv. Due to the uncertain situation in the United States, the prospects for the Ukrainian front are deteriorating significantly. For example, during a video meeting with the Ukrainian fundraising initiative UNITED24, Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine would lose the war if the US Congress did not approve military aid to counter Russian aggression. "It is important to address Congress specifically: if Congress does not help Ukraine, Ukraine will lose the war. If Ukraine loses this war, other countries will be attacked. This is a fact," Zelensky told the meeting participants.[2] Volodymyr Zelensky also warned that in the coming weeks, Russia "will increasingly drag nuclear weapons into the discussion, threaten and rattle them"
In his turn, Franz-Stephan Gadi, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, noted that the war in Ukraine has entered a "transitional phase". "Russia is probing the frontline. It is trying to advance where it can. And it is preparing what appears to be a future offensive," Gadi said. He stressed that European countries are trying to replace US aid, but the support that Washington can provide "cannot be replaced." In particular, there are some weapons systems, such as air defence systems, that European countries simply cannot provide to Ukraine.
Nevertheless, Kyiv is actively pursuing a dialogue with Poland, Romania, and Spain on providing Ukraine with air defence systems. Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's foreign minister, also confirmed in a Friday evening speech on Ukrainian news that active negotiations with allies are underway to purchase two Patriot air defence systems and one SAMP/T system. Although Kuleba did not mention specific countries, the FT reports that Ukraine is in talks with Poland and Spain for Patriot batteries from each, and with Romania for SAMP/T. One source confirmed that Ukraine needs seven such batteries. However, negotiations are becoming more complicated. Ukraine currently has at least three Patriot batteries and one SAMP/T battery, which it received in 2023.
At a weekly briefing this week, European diplomat Josep Borrell noted that it was surprising that Western countries could not provide Ukraine with seven additional Patriot batteries, given the presence of more than a hundred in their arsenal: "The argument that we cannot provide them is not convincing, given that European armies have about 100 Patriot batteries. But we are still unable to provide the seven [batteries] they are desperately asking for," he said.[3]
It is worth noting that Germany previously transferred two of these air defence systems to Ukraine out of its 12 batteries in 2023. Therefore, this week, German Foreign Minister Anne Lena Burbock announced that the stocks of Patriot batteries for possible transfer to Ukraine have been exhausted.
Polish President Andrzej Duda also told reporters that his country is unable to provide Ukraine with Patriot missile systems, as it is developing its own missile defence system. Finnish President Alexander Stubb explained the logic behind this step, noting that decisions on the transfer of strategic arms stockpiles remain with the military command of EU countries and are confidential. In contrast, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said: "We can buy from them, we can deliver to Ukraine, we have the money. This is extremely important," he said upon arrival at the EU leaders' summit. He clarified that he was referring to countries that do not directly want to transfer air defence systems to Ukraine. Earlier, the Netherlands pledged €4 billion in military aid for Ukraine, as well as several Patriot systems.[4]
For his part, Volodymyr Zelensky noted that Ukraine was in line for Patriot and missiles for them, and it was difficult to agree with the West on new supplies. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that the priority for 2024 is to provide Kyiv with Patriot or SAMP-T systems, and that the use of traditional methods of diplomacy has not been successful. It is clear that a difficult but important period is now approaching. Russia continues to launch regular attacks on energy infrastructure. By doing so, it wants to turn Ukrainian cities into a desert and morally exhaust the country and its population. Moscow has high expectations for the summer offensive, hoping to make significant progress due to, among other things, the absence of population in the territories. At the same time, Europe also needs to understand that if Kyiv falls, it will be the next target for Moscow, and it simply cannot withstand such a flood of refugees.
All this means that Europe now needs to provide Ukraine with more support in the form of air defence systems. This course should be uncompromising and fast. In addition, Brussels must protect it from turbulence factors, such as looming elections and the rise of parties with close ties to Russia. This is the only way to stop Moscow and ensure the security of the European region.
[1] Єврокомісія схвалила український план Ukraine Facility на 50 мільярдів євро допомоги. 15.04.2024. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-dopomoha-ukrayini-yevrokomisiya/32906500.html
[2] Зеленський: без допомоги США Україна програє війну, – CNN. 08.04.2024. https://lb.ua/world/2024/04/08/607544_zelenskiy_bez_dopomogi_ssha_ukraina.html
[3] FT: Україна домовляється з Іспанією, Польщею та Румунією щодо передачі систем ППО. 13. 04.2024. https://suspilne.media/724421-ft-ukraina-domovlaetsa-z-ispanieu-polseu-ta-rumunieu-sodo-peredaci-sistem-ppo/
[4] Прем’єр Нідерландів Рютте пропонує ЄС викупити системи Patriot для надання Україні.17.04.2024. https://censor.net/ua/n3484959