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The Ukrainian Peace Formula in Davos: Results and Prospects?

On 14 January, the fourth meeting of national security advisers on the Ukrainian "Peace Formula" took place in Davos, Switzerland. The event was attended by 81 countries and international organizations, an increase compared to the previous meeting in Malta, where 66 countries were represented. According to Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, 39 European countries, 18 Asian countries, 12 African countries, 6 South American countries, 3 North American countries and 2 Oceania countries sent representatives to Davos.

According to him, this fourth meeting of the advisers in Davos is a logical continuation of the third meeting in Malta, where the first five points of Ukraine's "Formula for Peace" were considered, namely nuclear security, food and energy security, release of prisoners and deportees, including children, and restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty. 

Now, according to him, the next five points of the "formula" have been worked out in Davos. These include the withdrawal of Russian troops, restoration of justice, environmental safety, prevention of escalation and recurrence of the war, and confirmation of the end of the war Yermak stressed that, as in Malta, each of these points was presented by countries that are co-leaders of the relevant tracks of the "formula". He added that it is necessary to decide on further actions, in particular, to agree on the format of the Global Peace Summit. According to him, this will allow us to start developing detailed roadmaps for each of the points of the "formula", and the countries leading the relevant areas could hold thematic conferences to finalize the algorithms for their implementation.

Representatives of Lithuania and the Minister of Defence of Ukraine, Rustem Umerov, presented the results of the working group's progress on the aspect of "Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities". It was noted that an international working group will be established to coordinate the withdrawal of Russian troops and occupation forces from the territory of Ukraine.

Representatives of the Netherlands, Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin and Deputy Minister of Justice of Ukraine Iryna Mudra, presented the progress of the working group dealing with the "Restoration of Justice" aspect. The working group is working on bringing to justice those responsible for the Russian aggression.

As for Environmental Security, Germany, Finland and Bulgaria continue to cooperate with Ukraine. The Minister of Ecology of Ukraine Ruslan Strilets noted that greenhouse gas emissions caused by the war in Ukraine exceed the total emissions in Austria.

The work on "Preventing the escalation of the war and the recurrence of aggression" was presented by the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak and a representative of the United Kingdom. The basis for this matter is the Joint Declaration of Support for Ukraine, signed by the Group of Seven countries.

Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Sybiga and Minister of Justice Denys Malyuska presented the results of work on the topic of "Confirmation of the end of the war". According to them, Ukraine has tried to conclude a relevant international agreement with Russia to formalize mutual relations and confirm the end of the war, but each time Russia has suspended or ignored its implementation.

During a press conference after the talks, the head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak, said that Ukraine was interested in China's participation in the talks. Yermak expressed hope for a possible meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang at the Davos forum, which was to take place from 15 to 19 January. The head of the Presidential Administration also expressed hope that China would join the discussions on the "peace formula".[1]  However, the Chinese side ignored the meeting. At the same time, Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis added that China has significant influence, and it is important to find ways to cooperate with it on this issue.

The Swiss diplomat also made other statements regarding the Forum. Thus, he believes that the Ukrainian "Peace Formula" may be subject to certain modifications, as it is unlikely that one of the conflicting parties will accept proposals prepared by the other side: "We have to consider the form of such discussions, political and diplomatic efforts to find a way to open the door. After the first stage, we have a better vision of what is possible, what is impossible and what will be difficult to achieve. This had to be clarified before any further dialogue could take place," he proclaimed.[2]

Cassis suggests that the Ukrainian "Formula for Peace" is only one of the foundations for peace talks, serving as a starting point for further discussion. He points out that different countries have different positions on the events on the battlefield, and Ukraine's position does not coincide with Russia's. Cassis also emphasizes that developments on the battlefield will influence the negotiations. But it is also worth waiting for Russia's willingness to join and sit down at the negotiating table, which will also depend on these factors: "We have to be ready. And we should not wait for that moment to decide what to talk about. The military situation on the battlefield does or does not create the conditions to move forward. In the current situation, it is an illusion to imagine that Russia will accept our invitation. This is not the goal now, as we say. But we are preparing for the moment when Russia will be able to join and participate. This should be through the mediation of other countries to invite Russia on board. There is no alternative to this," he said.

This emphasis on the part of the Swiss representative caused some misunderstanding on the part of some media. However, it is important to understand what such platforms and initiatives are. All of this is preparation for the establishment of a new world system. The Ukrainian-Russian war put an end to the world order that had prevailed before. This is a conflict with global implications that will require the involvement of the entire world. Such platforms and agreements are the basis for further security processes that will involve most countries. This is the formation of complexes of new regional systems and initiatives. That is why they are so important for Europe and the world, because they are a process of preparation.

And as it has always been, a peace agreement is the end of any war. And it is concluded between two actors - the winner and the loser. Therefore, Russia is indispensable in signing a peace agreement. This is exactly what Cassis meant. Yes, this will be preceded by a tough and uncompromising struggle, but then it will be time for diplomacy. And it will be diplomatic instruments such as the Formula for Peace platforms that will be the main driver of the new post-war world order.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[1] Працюємо над п'ятьма пунктами "формули миру": Єрмак про зустріч в Давосі. 14.01.2024. https://suspilne.media/661280-pracuemo-nad-patma-punktami-formuli-miru-ermak-pro-zustric-v-davosi/?utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps

[2] У Давосі представник Швейцарії закликав «взяти Росію на борт» обговорень Формули миру. 14.01.2024 https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-polytics/3813334-u-davosi-predstavnik-svejcarii-zaklikav-vzati-rosiu-na-bort-obgovoren-formuli-miru.html