On 5 February 2024, the High Representative of the European Union, Josep Borrell, arrived in Warsaw for meeting talks, where he discussed, among other things, Ukraine. After the scheduled meetings, Josep Borrell travelled to Ukraine. This time, in addition to non-public events and trips (for example, he visited two drone manufacturing plants), Borrell spoke at the Verkhovna Rada, and his speech can definitely be called a new step. In particular, the head of European diplomacy stated that Europe needed to continue its support for Ukraine "for as long as it takes" in favour of a new approach - "Ukraine's victory at any cost".
After the visit, the diplomat wrote in his blog that a new offensive by Russian troops could begin in March. "Another major Russian offensive may begin in a few months after the Russian 'elections' in March. However, I have seen that the Ukrainian people remain determined to continue the struggle, and I have seen their ingenuity and resilience at work," Borrell said. He stressed that, unlike their Russian counterparts, Ukrainian soldiers know what they are fighting for and are not lacking in motivation:
"But they cannot do this without our support, which must be urgently increased... What the EU and its member states do in the coming months to give Ukraine the tools to withstand the Russian offensive will be crucial for both Ukraine and the security of the European Union," the European diplomat said.
He called on EU member states to work with their defence companies to review contracts and prioritise the supply of arms and ammunition to Ukraine. In addition, he also expressed hope that the EU will soon be able to re-launch its Peace Fund to support Ukraine:
"I also hope that by the end of the month we will be able to re-launch the EU Peace Fund to continue to support you not only from the warehouses, from the previous capabilities that we had before the war, but also to create new capabilities, new orders, new synergies between your industry and ours," the EU official said. [1]
This initiative is an important step in maintaining security and stability in the region. It demonstrates the European Union's commitment to resolving the situation in Ukraine and recognises the need to strengthen the country's defence capabilities.
The creation of new production facilities will allow Ukraine to obtain the necessary military equipment and weapons, which will help strengthen its defence capabilities and ensure effective resistance to potential threats. Relaunching the Peace Fund could also be an important step in expanding cooperation between the European Union and Ukraine in the security and defence sector.
Borrell highlighted Ukraine's experience in weapons production, noting that such experience would be very useful for Europe: "You don't need help with drones. I visited some of your drone factories and was very surprised by the ability of your engineers to create high quality drones in large quantities. And at the end of the war, Ukraine will be at the forefront of a new way of fighting a war. It's really amazing. And I think it's something to be very much taken into account, how a country can have such a production capacity of sophisticated and effective drones from nothing in one year. I have to congratulate you on that," Borrell said at a joint press conference with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Kyiv.
The emphasis that Ukraine may be at the forefront of a new way of warfare points to the importance of military innovation and Ukraine's readiness to adapt to modern military technology. It may also indicate support from the European Union for the development of Ukraine's military-technical capabilities and cooperation in this area.
When asked whether the threat from Russia more serious today is than it was two years ago, Borrell noted the importance of "being very well informed". "Two years ago, we were 40 per cent dependent on Russian gas. That was a lot. Now this dependence is zero," he said.[2]
One of the main aspects of the discussion was the provision of ammunition to Ukraine. According to Borrell, Ukraine needs more ammunition, there is a big imbalance in artillery capabilities that needs to be levelled. To this end, it is planned to discuss a fund to help Ukraine under the European Peace Fund, which will now be more focused on supporting the production of ammunition and the European defence industry.
This is certainly a major turnaround in EU policy, which is now becoming increasingly determined to engage in military assistance to Ukraine. This can be seen not only at the EU level, but also at the level of individual countries. For example, French President Emmanuel Macron has declared Europe's readiness to provide Ukraine with strategic equipment, which is an important step in maintaining security and stability in the region. In particular, he emphasised the operational cooperation between the armies of NATO member states and the European Union and their readiness to act together to protect Ukraine.
Before his visit to Washington, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also called on the European Union and the United States to do more to help Ukraine, stressing the need to join forces to support the country. He noted that Russian aggression continues, and more support for Ukraine is needed than previously promised in Europe and the United States. Scholz said that Germany has made a great contribution, but more needs to be done, especially in the context of the situation in the US Congress. He stressed the need to send a clear message to Russia with continued and significant support for Ukraine.
In addition, some European countries have announced their intention to increase the production of ammunition to support Ukraine, and this is a very important contribution to support the country in times of war. The EU has also recently agreed a €50 billion aid package for Ukraine. These actions demonstrate the European Union's determination to support Ukraine in its fight for security and sovereignty.
This development is due to several factors. The first is the United States. The recent failure of a vote on a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine in the US Senate has caused serious outrage and concern among politicians in Germany and Europe. It highlighted the potential problems that could arise if the US stops providing aid to Ukraine. Europe's security could be at risk if a similar situation were to repeat itself if Donald Trump returns to the White House.
The EU aid package does not include military assistance. These funds are directed to civilian needs, such as teacher salaries or the maintenance of the state apparatus. In contrast, US aid is mainly military in nature and includes the supply of weapons.
In terms of military aid, the EU is catching up with the US, but the latter remains the largest donor to the Ukrainian armed forces. However, the problem is that Europe is not able to provide Ukraine with what the US can due to the limited size and production capacity of the European defence industry.
It is also important to note that some EU member states have different approaches to aiding Ukraine. Eastern European countries provide mainly military assistance, while Western countries have long believed that it is important to support only self-defence. This is also reflected in the speed of decision-making within the EU and the provision of specific assistance. The presence of pro-Russian countries such as Slovakia and Hungary should not be forgotten.
So, although Europe is improving its efforts to assist Ukraine, it must be recognised that it cannot yet fully replace the military assistance provided by the United States.
But now we see Europe gradually changing its policy. We should not forget that it also has leverage over the US. If the Republican isolationists in the US Congress finally refuse to support Ukraine and leave Europe alone against Russian aggression, Europe will probably not be ready to help the US in its confrontation with China. This opinion was expressed by University of Ottawa law professor George Monastiriacos in a publication in The Hill, Ukrinform reports[3]. According to the author, Republicans in Congress are preventing America from maintaining its role as a global leader, and Trump personally lobbied to break the deal, which was supposed to unblock Biden's request for US national security needs, including support for Ukraine. If America remains an ally with Europe, it will ensure that their capabilities and needs are fully met. However, if they act separately, success will be unattainable for both.
The European Union is also considering possible scenarios of how Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election could affect economic relations between Europe and America. According to Bloomberg, Brussels fears that Trump could start a transatlantic trade war. [4]
As Trump increases his chances of being re-elected president of the United States, Brussels officials are beginning to seriously consider the possible consequences of his return to power. The European Union is watching the Republican primaries, where Trump is winning one victory after another, and considering how best to respond to a possible new administration in the United States.
The second risk factor is a possible Russian attack on NATO. The likelihood of this has never been higher, and the EU understands this. Europe has realised its mistake in its long-standing policy of neglecting the military sector and is trying to fix it. For Ukraine, this is, of course, a good sign and a source of hope. But Brussels faces a number of challenges in its reform process, and now Europe needs unity and determination to survive these difficult times.
[1] Боррель: Росія може почати новий великий наступ після "виборів" у березні.13.02.2024. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/articles/2024/02/8/7179162/
[2] Боррель захоплений здібностями України у виробництві дронів. 07.02.2024. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/965595.html
[3] Науковець застерігає: Якщо республіканці не підтримають Україну, ЄС не допоможе США у протидії Китаю.02.02.2024. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/3822046-naukovec-zasterigae-akso-respublikanci-ne-pidtrimaut-ukrainu-es-ne-dopomoze-ssa-u-protidii-kitau.html
[4] ЄС готується до торговельної війни зі США після обрання Трампа президентом. 08.02.2024. https://www.unian.ua/world/yes-gotuyetsya-do-torgovelnoji-viyni-zi-ssha-pislya-obrannya-trampa-prezidentom-12537567.html