"Europe Day, which our country celebrates for the second time together with the European Union on 9 May, is the embodiment of the most important aspirations - unity and peace. On its European integration path, Ukraine has consistently demonstrated its commitment to these goals. [1]

Ukraine, as a full member of the EU, will definitely become stronger, there is no doubt about it." - said Olga Stefanishyna, Vice Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration, about Europe Day. Indeed, many steps towards Ukraine's integration have been taken since then.  For example, in January, a Ukrainian delegation took part in a kick-off meeting in Brussels to launch the screening process, an important process of assessing Ukrainian legislation for compliance with EU law that precedes formal accession negotiations. In preparation for these negotiations, Ukraine will develop roadmaps in the areas of rule of law, freedom of movement of persons (justice, freedom, security) and public administration reform. During the meeting, the European side presented the stages of the official screening process. The EU, for its part, has drawn up a schedule of meetings between representatives of Ukrainian ministries and the European Commission as part of this process. This effectively marked the first stage before the start of the accession negotiations.

And on 2 March, the European Commission presented proposals to the EU Council on a draft negotiation framework for Ukraine and Moldova. Their text was almost identical to the text of the framework for the two Balkan candidates, Albania and North Macedonia, except for certain provisions.

In addition, it provided for changes in voting procedures. For Ukraine (as well as Albania, North Macedonia and Moldova), voting on the recommendation to suspend negotiations will be "simplified" - by a reverse qualified majority. This means that the European Commission's recommendation will be adopted automatically if the EU Council does not challenge it with a qualified majority within 90 days. This creates additional challenges in counteracting negative conclusions of the Commission, as they are quite difficult to challenge.

In general, the framework is guided by a system of benchmarks and attaches particular importance to "Fundamental Issues". Benchmarks are binding conditions set for each negotiating chapter. The EU Council sets benchmarks for the opening (if necessary) and temporary closure of each negotiating chapter. Interim benchmarks will be set for Chapters 23 and 24 of the Fundamental Issues cluster, which relate to the judiciary and the rule of law. Until Ukraine meets them, no other negotiating chapters can be closed, even if progress has already been made.

The next step is to start accession negotiations. In general, President Zelensky is optimistic about the chances of a quick start to EU membership negotiations and notes progress in rapprochement with "difficult partners". The press service of the President's Office quotes Zelensky as saying that Ukraine has completed all the necessary procedures to start negotiations, and now only the political part remains: "Instrumentally and operationally, we have done everything to open negotiations with the EU in June. I think everything will work out. Even difficult partners have become a little easier today. We have been actively working with them," he said.[2]

Ukraine's European integration is needed not only by Kyiv, but also by Brussels. The key, of course, is the security sector. After Ukraine joins the EU, Europe will have one of the largest armies with practical experience in countering full-scale aggression by a country that is far superior in terms of numbers, resources and finances. Ukraine will strengthen the EU with its many years of experience in effective self-defence against Russia, which is known for fuelling regional conflicts and spreading propaganda around the world.

The current war in Ukraine is the largest in Europe since the Second World War. The Ukrainian military has practical experience of working in combat conditions with a variety of tools and equipment that no other country has, not only in Europe but in the world. Ukrainian IT specialists can already be extremely useful to the EU in the field of cyber defence and the application of the latest technologies. Ukrainian strategic communications experts have unique knowledge in countering Russian propaganda and ongoing information and psychological operations. For example, NATO is already changing its approaches and adapting its strategy in line with Ukraine's combat experience, and the European Union is rethinking its strategy and tasks for the defence and security sector. Thus, the EU-Ukraine Defence Industry Forum was held in Brussels. As a result, a decision was made to use the European Peace Facility to compensate EU countries for the costs of purchasing weapons for the Ukrainian Defence Forces from Ukrainian manufacturers.

Ukraine is also a major transport hub. Its accession will provide the EU with a new transport hub within the Europe-Asia transport corridors. In particular, maritime transport is extremely important for the European economy. Ukraine's accession to the EU's Single Market will help to realise Ukraine's potential as a transit country.

In agriculture, Ukraine has a large market on the continent outside the EU. Therefore, it has significant potential to develop its processing industry and create new production facilities. Its integration will have a positive impact on the EU's food security and strengthen the Union's position in global agricultural trade. Ukraine's accession to the EU will significantly strengthen the enlarged EU's independence from third-country agricultural supplies and enhance food security in both Ukraine and the EU.

In addition, Ukraine is a guarantor of food security in Africa and the Middle East, which are heavily dependent on its relatively cheap products to avoid hunger. Continued grain exports from Ukraine to these countries, which are already part of the EU, will make the EU itself a guarantor of food security in these regions. This will have a significant impact on security within the Union (reducing the number of migrants from poor countries) and on the growth of its influence in the international arena.

But there are also many obstacles on this path. For example, Ukraine's planned accession may require an increase in the EU budget by about 20%. At the same time, all this is unlikely to change the current positions of the EU member states, both as recipients of EU funds and as payers. In addition, the Western Balkan countries may stand in the way of Ukraine's membership aspirations.  For example, in March 2024, the European Council gave the green light to start accession talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina, provided certain requirements are met. In addition to Bosnia, four other Balkan countries have candidate status, and Kosovo has the status of a potential candidate with a recognised European perspective. Although most attention is currently focused on Ukraine and Moldova, which are united in a single "package", our countries are newcomers that have rapidly broken into the company of the old candidates. This causes different reactions to Kyiv's claims of a fast track to membership.

Until recently, there was no consensus in the EU on how to proceed with further enlargement. Some members of the bloc (including Austria, Croatia, Hungary, and Slovenia) supported the idea of Ukraine and Moldova's European integration alongside the progress of the Balkan countries. For Ukraine's friends, this option is unacceptable, as it would depend not only on the progress of Moldova, but also of the Balkan countries, none of which is currently showing significant progress in this area, and as for Bosnia and Herzegovina, there are doubts about its political will to negotiate.

However, the main approach remains the principle of progress based on the achievements of each candidate (merit-based principle). This approach envisages individual progress of each candidate country on the way to accession, without codependence.  Recent communications from the European Commission indicate a willingness to assess Ukraine's progress individually and independently of other candidates. This could, however, be negative news, as less friendly countries may insist that Ukraine should not overtake the Balkan states, some of which have been waiting in the wings for more than 20 years. This could lead to delays in the accession process.[3]

Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine has led to massive emigration of Ukrainians to the European Union, which has created economic problems for EU states, including rising inflation in 2022. Although the European economy improved in 2023, inflation in the service sector remained high.

Changes in the EU's agricultural sector regulations (transition to a green economy) and the changing global environment led to protests by European farmers in Poland, France, the Czech Republic, and other countries. Some of them were inclined to shift the "blame" to Ukrainian imports, even when there were no grounds for this. These protests have already caused significant damage to Ukraine, but this is only the beginning of such actions. Nevertheless, there are reasonable expectations that the socio-economic situation, including the EU's agricultural sector, will soon stabilise. The European Commission's latest forecasts for GDP growth and inflation slowdown in 2024 are positive. The end by Polish farmers of the long-term blockade of the Polish-Ukrainian border, which was more of a political than an economic phenomenon, is an example of a successful resolution of the dispute at the level of governments and agricultural associations of the two countries. However, the sustainability of these improvements remains an open question, especially given Russian subversive activities, which are expected to increase in the coming months. In addition, farmers' protests are likely to continue. Their impact on our European integration should not be underestimated, as Ukraine's accession to the EU will undoubtedly affect the agricultural policy of the European Union itself.

The very unstable internal situation in the EU is also a challenge for Ukraine. The need to reform the European Union has been discussed openly for a long time, both in capitals and in European institutions. In November, the European Parliament approved a report on the need for reforms, calling for, among other things, changes in decision-making processes. Until recently, the dominant view in the EU was that the reform process should precede enlargement, i.e., EU reform first, and then Ukraine's accession. Recently, however, the position within the EU has changed: enlargement before the reform is completed is seen as a realistic option. The European Commission's analysis shows that the EU is capable of enlargement within the existing model of treaties and rules, and thus our accession and the reform of the Union can move in parallel rather than sequential processes.

Despite the change in assessments of reform as a "precondition for Ukraine's accession", this does not change the fact that the lack of reform of the EU's decision-making mechanism is hampering our integration. After all, when even current procedural steps require finding consensus among member states, including those whose leaders use the topic of Ukraine's accession as a tool to achieve their own political goals, this can significantly harm the negotiation process.

That is why in the coming years, our European integration will largely depend on successful communication with both the EU institutions and individual member states whose governments may not support the idea of Ukraine's early membership. The factor of anti-Ukrainian agents in the EU, such as Hungary and Slovakia, should not be overlooked. It also remains unclear why the President of the European Commission postponed the approval of the negotiation framework for Ukraine until June, although there were no technical obstacles to its approval in the spring. However, the good news is that a further postponement is less likely. The rhetoric in Brussels and in the capitals is now clearly leaning towards approving the negotiation framework and starting negotiations in June.

In other words, the process of starting negotiations on accession and a new stage of European integration is really like a scale, where for every item in the bowl of positive prospects, one is weighed against the bowl of challenges. However, the bowl of positives still outweighs the bowl of negatives. Although this Europe Day is not a tribute to victory, it is definitely a positive event in Ukraine's historic process of joining the EU. It is therefore important for Kyiv not to miss the moment and to take into account all the threats and comments in order to really get to the June start of negotiations.