Since the beginning of 2024, against the backdrop of the American political crisis, we can see the EU taking on the role of Ukraine's main ally. The EU is now giving Ukraine a central role in the development of its future policy. Against this backdrop, Kyiv is also making active efforts to further its European integration.
For example, the Ukrainian delegation took part in a constituent meeting at the end of January 2024 to launch screening, an important process of assessing Ukrainian legislation for compliance with EU law, which precedes the official start of accession negotiations. This was reported to Yevropeiska Pravda by the press service of Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna, who headed the Ukrainian delegation.
As part of the preparations for the immediate pre-accession talks, Ukraine will develop roadmaps in the areas of rule of law, freedom of movement of persons (justice, freedom, security) and public administration reform. During the meeting, the European side presented the features and stages of the official screening process. As part of this process, the EU has drawn up a schedule of meetings between representatives of Ukrainian ministries and the European Commission. Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Olha Stefanishyna stressed that Ukrainian institutions are mobilised and ready to work together actively.
At the same time, the EU, which has embarked on the path of remilitarisation, is interested in Ukraine's experience in rebuilding the military-industrial complex. Thus, the EU has engaged Ukraine in the development of a future strategy for the EU's defence industry. In her speech to the European Parliament, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen noted that the EU countries together had provided military aid to Ukraine worth more than €28 billion and trained more than 40,000 military personnel. She stressed that while this is an important step, the EU should think of Ukraine's defence capabilities as part of its own. Therefore, Ukraine is involved in the preparation of a strategy for the EU defence industry. Von der Leyen also stressed the need for cooperation and joint planning of military and defence-industrial programmes to meet not only Ukraine's defence needs, but also to contribute to the overall defence and security of the EU. Therefore, it can be said that Kyiv is becoming part of a single European system of the military-industrial industry. At least Brussels already has this vision.
This is also confirmed by the first-ever European Defence and Industrial Strategy (EDIS) presented on 5 March, which includes close cooperation with Ukraine. In particular, it sets out a clear, long-term vision for achieving defence industrial readiness in the European Union. The first priority means of implementing the strategy is a legislative proposal to implement the European Defence Industrial Programme (EDIP) and measures to ensure timely availability and supply of defence products. The strategy identifies the challenges facing the European Defence Technology and Industrial Base (EDTIB) and provides directions for the next decade. The EDIS proposes a set of measures to support member states in achieving these goals, including engaging Ukraine in initiatives and cooperation with it, and joining forces with NATO and other international partners. The strategy also sets out indicators to measure the progress of member states in achieving industrial readiness, such as equipment procurement, intra-European defence trade and defence budget use. As part of this strategy, the EU also plans to open a defence innovation office in Kyiv.
In addition, European politicians are now pursuing a tougher policy towards both Russia and its allies. In particular, Ursula von der Leyen stressed in her speech in Strasbourg before the EU Parliament plenary session on 21-22 March that if Iran goes ahead with its plan to supply ballistic missiles to Russia to escalate the fighting in Ukraine, the European Union will impose additional sanctions on the country. The Pope also received criticism from the EU. Joseph Borrell criticised him for calling on Ukraine to "have the courage to raise the white flag". "Calling on Ukraine to surrender is more than a wish for peace. I believe that now is not the time to offer Ukraine to surrender. On the contrary, this is the moment when we need to increase aid to the country," Borrell said. [1]
In addition to moves in military aid, the European Union is considering providing Ukraine with approximately €27 billion in profits from Russian assets. It is projected that deposits held in Europe could provide between €15 and €20 billion in after-tax returns by the end of 2027. However, this amount will depend on changes in global interest rates. Currently, it is expected that these deposits could generate between EUR 2 billion and EUR 3 billion of profit this year, depending on potential changes in interest rates.
As for the use of these funds, there is currently no unanimous agreement in the European Union, as there is no agreed position on their confiscation. The money may be used for the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces or for humanitarian purposes, but the specific direction of spending is currently unknown. While the general principle of using the profits may be agreed upon, the actual spending requires further discussion, taking into account the constitutional norms of each EU member state. This process is currently active, and the EU expects significant progress on this issue.
In addition, the meeting of the Committee of Permanent Representatives approved additional funding for the European Peace Fund and the creation of a specialised fund to provide military assistance to Ukraine in the amount of EUR 5 billion for the current year. These funds will be used to purchase ammunition, military equipment and training for Ukrainian soldiers.
In addition, President of the European Council Charles Michel stressed the need for European states to take the Russian Federation as a military threat seriously and emphasised the importance of being prepared for different scenarios. According to him, Europe needs to strengthen its defence capabilities and switch to a war economy in response to the threat from Russia. He emphasised that Europe should take responsibility for its own security and not rely entirely on the support of other countries, in particular the United States. He warned that if the EU does not provide adequate support for Ukraine, it could become the next target of the aggressor. Therefore, it is necessary to be prepared for defence and transition to a war economy. In his statement, Michel also added that if the EU really wants peace, it must prepare for the possibility of war. Undoubtedly, these statements reflect serious concerns about Europe's security in the context of geopolitical turbulence on the European continent.
In addition, a "coalition of armoured vehicles" was created to support the Ukrainian Defence Forces, which is an important step to strengthen the country's defence capabilities in the face of geopolitical tensions. Poland and Germany, as co-leaders of this initiative, stressed their readiness to actively cooperate and take concrete measures to support Ukraine. One of the key advantages of this initiative is its long-term nature, which envisages an increase in defence production through Polish-German cooperation. This approach will ensure sustainable support for the Ukrainian Defence Forces in the long term. In addition, the creation of a Rapid Reaction Force in Europe, with the participation of Poland and Germany, is another important step to ensure security and stability in the region. This will allow for a timely and effective response to potential threats and crises.
This is because Europe has fully embarked on the path of rearmament, and this will now be a top priority of its policy. There is also a clear understanding that without Ukraine, it will not be possible to build a new effective defence system, and without preserving its sovereignty and independence, it will not be possible to ensure the continent's security. Furthermore, Ukraine has clearly established itself as an integral part of Europe, and therefore its membership in the EU is only a matter of time. On the other hand, Kyiv also needs to clearly understand its advantages in practical experience in building the defence sector and start developing a strategy for international cooperation in this area. In particular, appropriate legal transformations, new control and transparency institutions are needed. If Ukraine is able to mobilise its defence industry capabilities now, it will not only strengthen its international position but also gain additional economic benefits. But it is also necessary to maintain a realistic approach, as European defence is still in its infancy and will be a long process, and this should not be the only source of hope for Kyiv.
However, while the prospects in the defence sector are quite optimistic, the picture is quite different when it comes to the issue of Russian assets with large aid packages. For example, on the eve of the EU leaders' summit, Josep Borrell proposed to use 90% of the proceeds from Russian assets frozen in Europe to purchase weapons for Ukraine through the European Peace Fund. He also noted that the remaining 10% could be transferred to the EU budget to strengthen the capacity of the Ukrainian defence industry. The Belgian government supported this plan. Under this scenario, Ukraine would also receive a profit tax charged by the Belgian government. This year, this tax will amount to about €1.7 billion, of which €1.5 billion will be paid this year. This was the main issue at the EU summit in March. Although most countries announced their agreement with the plan, Hungary said it would block the decision.
Although most EU countries have chosen to provide unprecedented alliance and assistance to Ukraine because of the peculiarities of the European system, this is not enough. The emergence of pro-Russian satellites in the EU, such as Hungary and Slovakia, is a real threat to ambitious European plans and their further development. Therefore, Europe must mobilise its resources to counter their position at all levels, including the institutional one. Moreover, the development of such a strategy should be done quickly. However, it is a good sign that other leaders, both in the EU and in its member states, are committed to doing everything possible to maximise support for Ukraine.
[1] Боррель іронічно прокоментував слова Папи Римського про "білий прапор".15.03.2024. https://tsn.ua/svit/borrel-ironichno-prokomentuvav-slova-papi-rimskogo-pro-biliy-prapor-2535589.html