During the summer, the world community witnessed dramatic geopolitical transformations. The President of the United States, after several months of domestic political work, began an active implementation of the new American foreign policy strategy. The American president held a series of meetings with leaders of states, which should take an important place in the strategy of Joseph Biden. The main idea of ??this strategy was the formation of an alliance of democracies in different regions of the world as opposed to an authoritarian China. Experienced Joseph Biden still has memories of the Cold War when the United States gained a strategic advantage over the Soviet Union during the Nixon era through the US-China rapprochement. With the aim of weakening the PRC and gaining strategic advantages over Beijing, Joe Biden decided to try to play the Russian card and repeat the success started by the Nixon administration. However, the imperfect execution of the plan defined by Joe Biden and the neglect of objective factors led to miscalculations that will have long-term consequences for both the United States and Ukraine.
On June 10, the United States and the United Kingdom signed «the New Atlantic Charter». The document aimed to turn the page in relations between the two countries affected by Donald Trump's «America first» doctrine, reaffirmed the special relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom, and outlined the intention to coordinate policies to maintain collective defense and international stability. After that, on July 15, in Washington, the US President signed a relevant document with the head of Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel. The document called «Washington Declaration» also defined the strategic partnership between the two states and, in particular, intend to jointly counter security threats. So, the new head of the White House identified the main partners in Europe within the confrontation with China.
While Great Britain was supposed to support the United States both in Europe and in the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East, Germany, in turn, according to Biden's plan, should take the place of the main partner in the European direction. With a view to restore bilateral relations, Berlin received carte blanche from Washington for the completion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. The decision to lift sanctions on the pipeline operator drew strong criticism from both American parties, as well as an outrage from the Eastern European states, but the completion of Nord Stream 2 was almost a fait accompli. The agreements between the American President and the German Chancellor were concluded without any obligations and guarantees on the part of both the German and the Russian side. And no matter how hard Joe Biden tried to assure his partners and opponents that he would not allow gas to be used as a weapon, in fact, the United States ultimately has no leverage over Russia and Germany.
The German side does not intend to block the project if Russia uses gas as a weapon. This is evidenced by the words of German officials, who in an interview with "Bloomberg" directly stated that instead of imposing sanctions on the pipeline, Germany in this case will focus on broader sanctions within the European Union. Joseph Biden's foreign policy plan faced the objective reality in which Germany began its own geopolitical game.
First, Berlin has already made it clear that FRG will keep maintaining relations with China based on its own national interests. Secondly, after the completion of Nord Stream 2, Germany, which transports gas not only from Russia but also from Norway, becomes the largest transit country for natural gas in Europe. At the same time, the Russian Federation is also expanding its own influence on the European continent. Against the background of signing an agreement with Hungary on gas supplies bypassing Ukraine for 15 years, we already evidence how the Russian Federation uses energy to further weaken Ukraine. Germany, which deliberately strengthens energy cooperation with the Kremlin, acts as the Russian Federation's main partner in Europe. At the same time, Berlin, guided by pragmatism in the spirit of political realism, neglects the principles of energy solidarity of the European Union and deliberately harms other member states. It is worth quoting from the summary of the Court of Justice of the European Union of Germany's arguments on Nord Stream 2: «The principle of energy solidarity as set out in Article 194(1) TFEU does not have binding effect, in the sense that it does not entail rights and obligations for the European Union and the Member States. According to the Federal Republic of Germany, it is an abstract, purely political notion».
It seems that the situation that famous Russian geopoliticians promoted is now evolving on the continent. Germany and the Russian Federation divide Europe into spheres of influence. The final formation of the new Vienna Concert became possible because of events that took place far from Europe, namely, in the Asia-Pacific region, which is characterized by a change in the Joe Biden administration foreign policy priorities in favor of the US-China confrontation. Optimization of resources has not yet led to a strengthening of the US position. On the contrary, the power vacuum that appears as a result of the US withdrawal is filled by Washington's rivals - Russia and China.
The real foreign policy failure of the Joe Biden administration was Afghanistan. After the hasty withdrawal of the US military, the Taliban quickly took control over the whole Afghanistan. The Taliban seized a large number of weapons and military equipment. After the Afghan government lost its capital, Kabul, the city collapsed. Thousands of foreigners, including Americans and Afghans who collaborated with Western states did not have time to leave the country before the Taliban arrival. Leaving the country became a matter of life and death for these people. Under the conditions of semi-anarchy, terrorists from the Islamic State took advantage of the situation organizing terrorist attacks. As a result, at least 85 people died, including 13 American soldiers. The number of victims among Afghans can be significantly higher: the American edition of The Wall Street Journal, citing a health worker in Kabul, reports almost 200 deaths. The actions of the American administration endangered the contingents of other NATO member countries. The withdrawal of troops was not coordinated within the North Atlantic Alliance. This, in turn, affected the governments of the strategic partners of the United States - Germany and Great Britain. In this case, we observe a direct contradiction to the New Atlantic Charter, the principles of which the Biden administration simply neglected. So, now there has been a blow to both areas of Washington's strategic partnership. In Europe, Germany is moving closer to Russia, and events in the Middle East will make London rely less on its main partner. Joe Biden did not manage to agree with the allies just as didn’t manage to agree with Vladimir Putin. At a meeting in Geneva, according to The Wall Street Journal, Joe Biden tried to reach an agreement with the Russian president on potential cooperation around Afghanistan after the withdrawal of American troops. The US President wanted to leave the military contingent in the region and considered Uzbekistan and Tajikistan as possible countries for its deployment. However, Vladimir Putin has flatly rejected the possibility of a US military presence in Central Asia, a region that the Kremlin is considering to be its sphere of influence.
The US failure to negotiate with the Taliban and defend its own interests in Afghanistan will be perceived in Moscow as a weakness. In the context of German-Russian rapprochement and Joe Biden's failure in the Middle East, the Kremlin will try to extend its influence to border countries. Realizing that neither the United States nor the European Union and NATO are ready to fight for Eastern Europe, there is a possibility that the Anschluss of the Republic of Belarus by Russia will be completed in the near future and that armed aggression against Ukraine will expand. The Ukrainian government needs to shift the focus from the conflict in eastern Ukraine, which is currently being resolved in the «Normandy format» at the expense of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to recognize the fact of war with the Russian Federation. At the legislative level, Ukraine must recognize Russia as a belligerent party, and give the territories of ORDLO and Crimea the status of occupied territories. According to Article 51 of the UN Charter, Ukraine will have the right for self-defense. The Ukrainian leadership needs to strengthen cooperation with the member states of the Bucharest Nine and the Lublin Triangle, create an anti-Putin coalition and strengthen the country's military capability and readiness for possible full-scale military aggression.