Photo: Munich Security Conference 2023
Source: MSC

Munich Security Conference (MSC) 2023 marked a fundamental change in the European security order, its perception by key actors and their vision of Russia's place in Europe. Russia was considered as an integral part of the European security order, even after 2014 and on the eve of last year's full-scale invasion. However, now Russia is finally perceived as a threat to the European security architecture.

The analytical report published by the organizers of the Munich event defines Russia as a state that is trying to revise the existing world order. China's assistance to Russia and the silence of many developing countries are noted. The general world trend noted in the document is the struggle between autocracies and democracies, and for the victory of the latter, according to the authors of the document, it is not enough to preserve the status quo. "Liberal democracies need to use this momentum. If they succeed in re-envisioning the liberal, rules-based order as one that better represents the many countries in the world that have hitherto been confined to the role of rule-takers, as one that better delivers on its promises, and as one that truly benefits everyone equally, they may enlarge the coalition of committed stakeholders and render the order much more resilient. If the revisionist moment we are currently experiencing spurs the renewal of this liberal, rules-based order, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the people of Ukraine will have played a big part in this achievement,"[1] the document states.

The general tone of the discussions was categorical towards the aggressor country, and the positions of the main powers of the Euro-Atlantic space leave no hope for the Kremlin regime for any favorable scenario. The participants of the event sent a large number of signals to the Russian leadership and other members of the international community: from the intention to help Ukraine defeat Russia, to the irreversibility of punishing Russian war criminals.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that Ukraine needs to be provided with all the means necessary to strike back, including tanks, armored vehicles and long-range weapons. Moreover, Rishi Sunak stated the need to provide Ukraine with security guarantees by NATO before its full membership. Probably, the Prime Minister is considering the possibility of implementing this idea in accordance with the model of the Kyiv Security Compact. This idea is proposed to be discussed in the near future so to officially conclude an agreement at the NATO summit in Vilnius. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also reiterated the thesis about security guarantees.

At a panel discussion with the participation of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, Analena Burbok and Anthony Blinken, high-ranking officials from the USA and Germany confirmed their intention to support Ukraine for as long as necessary. A year since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the resistance of the Ukrainian people has radically changed the rhetoric of Ukrainian partners. Now European and American diplomats are already using the arguments previously given by Ukrainian diplomats. In particular, Annalena Burbok emphasized that without the help of partners, the situation with Bucha and Mariupol would have happened all over the country.

US Vice President Kamala Harris, during her speech at the Munich Security Conference, emphasized the bipartisan support for Ukraine, which will continue in the future, and recalled the violation of human rights by the russians on the territory of Ukraine. In an emotional speech, Harris said that the United States has officially determined that Russia has committed crimes against humanity. "And I say to all those who have perpetrated these crimes, and to their superiors who are complicit in those crimes – you will be held to account,"[2] she said. Such high-level statements will not remain mere words. The creation of a tribunal regarding the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine is one of the main lines of activity of Ukrainian diplomacy. The Vice-President's statement probably indicates the readiness of the United States to facilitate the implementation of the clause of the Peace Formula regarding the restoration of justice.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was no less decisive in his statements. Stoltenberg noted the main lessons of this war: first, NATO countries should continue to support Ukraine and provide it with all necessary means to win. Second, the security situation on the continent has changed in the long term, so it is necessary to further strengthen the security of the Alliance. This implies a continued increase in defense budgets. It is significant that the Secretary General noted that the war started by Russia has a global dimension and that what is happening in Europe now may happen in Asia tomorrow. This thesis shows that after the summit in Madrid, NATO has finally moved away from maintaining exclusively the Euro-Atlantic area issues. Third, it is necessary to strengthen resilience, protect cyberspace, supply chains and infrastructure. In this regard, Stoltenberg noted the danger of dependence on authoritarian regimes, in particular the PRC. The biggest lesson of the war, the NATO Secretary General called, is that North America and Europe should stand together, maintaining unity.

There were no representatives of Russia and Iran at the conference. However, representatives of China were present. The PRC's point of view on the war was expressed by the head of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, Wang Yi. In February, Chinese diplomacy consistently tried to undermine Ukraine's initiatives to strengthen support in the confrontation with Russia. In particular, the People's Republic of China presented a peace plan in opposition to the Ukrainian Peace Formula initiative. Xi Jinping consistently avoids meeting with the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy. At forums and international platforms, China promoted Russian narratives about "legitimate interests" and "root causes" of the "Ukrainian crisis," as Chinese diplomats call the Russian war. The Munich Security Conference was no exception. On the one hand, Wang Yi spoke against global confrontation and for respecting the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. But, on the other hand, he mentioned the "legitimate security concerns" of states, leveling the principles of the UN Charter, which he referred to before. At the same time, in his speech, Wang Yi announced China's Global Security Initiative, which was later published. Thus, the People's Republic of China ignores the attempts of Ukrainian diplomacy to achieve a just peace and offers its own initiatives, as if there is no Russian aggression against Ukraine, completely ignoring the interests of the state whose borders and rights were violated.

Before asking a question to the Chinese high-ranking official at the panel discussion, the head of the MSC, Wolfgang Ischinger, emphasized that there was an exhibition with footage of Russian crimes in Ukraine in the building where the conference took place and invited the guests of the event, including the Chinese delegation, to take a look at this footage. Many of those who previously advocated dialogue with Putin have already understood the essence of the criminal Kremlin regime, including Ischinger, and did not remain aloof from helping Ukraine. However, China, contrary to the declared principle of a "society of mutual destiny", continues to take a "neutral-pro-Russian" position. Other conference participants did not share Wang Yi's position, and the views of the People's Republic of China in Munich were not supported.

Next to the idea of fighting authoritarianism, the second line of argument for supporting Ukraine was the fight for an rules-based order. Not all states are ready to support Ukraine in order to protect democracy in the fight against authoritarianism. The result of the vote for the exclusion of the Russian Federation from the UN Human Rights Council clearly testifies to this. Many countries in the world are not democratic. However, almost every state in the world is interested in the principle that a great power does not have the right to attack a neighboring country and seize its territory.

This year's Munich Security Conference summarized the diplomatic isolation of the Russian Federation in Europe. The main actors of the Euro-Atlantic space have finally given up on trying to involve the current Russian leadership in constructive cooperation. At the same time, there is still no common vision regarding Russia's place in the new security architecture. The countries of Europe and North America need a clear strategy regarding Russia, taking into account the potential loss of the aggressor country in a war and its possible disintegration.

Sources:

1. Re:vision Munich Security Report 2023, February 2023,
URL:https://d3mbhodo1l6ikf.cloudfront.net/2023/Munich%20Security%20Report%202023/MunichSecurityReport2023_Re_vision.pdf

2. Remarks by Vice President Harris at the Munich Security Conference, 18.02.2023,
URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/02/18/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-at-the-munich-security-conference-2/