Foreign Policy Research Institute

укр
eng
+38 (044) 287 52 58

Foreign Policy Research Institute

tel. +38 (044) 287 52 58

The dilemma of getting out of the "internal conflict" paradigm in the Donbass (dialogue Zelensky - Putin - Macron)

On August 7, Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky had a telephone conversation with French President, Emmanuel Macron. It is noted that during a conversation, Zelensky informed his French counterpart about the deaths of four Ukrainian soldiers as a result of shelling." The head of state noted that this is not the first shelling by the enemy, which aims to disrupt the peace process initiated by the Ukrainian side. The President of Ukraine also informed Emmanuel Macron about other steps aimed at a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, in particular the restoration of infrastructure, exchange of prisoners, etc", the report says.[1]

On the same day, Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky during a telephone conversation with Russian President, Vladimir Putin asked him to influence the cessation of hostilities in the Donbass. This was reported by the President of Ukraine during a briefing broadcast by the TV channel "Pryamiy". "I urgently called him and said that this does not bring us closer to peace. I ask you to influence the other side so that they stop killing our people." In addition, the head of state in conversation with the Russian side stressed the need to accelerate the construction of the bridge in the Stanytsia Luhanska and the return of Ukrainian prisoners.

The President of Ukraine also noted that he initiated telephone conversations with the leaders of the Normandy format countries. "We need to meet with the Normandy Four leaders as soon as possible. To look each other in the eye. And to end this war," he stressed. "I want to contact Ms. Merkel in the near future and agree on an urgent meeting so that we no longer tell each other that this year there should be a Normandy format meeting. How many more people may be killed this year?" the President said.[2]

Fort de Brégançon – Operation "Seduction of Putin" – that’s how French journalists called a joint press conference of Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin in the South of France, which took place on August 19. French media explain such  Macron's "courtship" to Putin by the fact that France and the EU want to keep Russia as a business partner, and Moscow is maneuvering that it can find more interesting markets in China. During the meeting, Putin reminded that about 500 French companies operate in Russia and the total amount of French investments in Russia reaches 17 billion euros. Therefore, it is not surprising that France calls for dialogue with Russia, and Macron "believes in a great Europe – from Lisbon to Vladivostok", as well as that it is possible to "invent a new architecture of security and trust between Russia and the EU."

During the discussion of the Ukrainian issue, both Presidents stated the need for a new meeting in the "Normandy format" in the near future, but with specific preliminary arrangements so that this summit will have practical significance. Also, both Macron and Putin expressed optimism about resolving the situation in the Donbass after their contacts with the new Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky. "The coming to power of President Zelensky is a real change in the situation. And we see new opportunities in the "Normandy format" summit in the next few weeks, " Emmanuel Macron said during the meeting. Vladimir Putin also confirmed his readiness for the meeting: "We must do this. There is no alternative to the " Normandy format", so we will support it."[3]

Guests of the program "Your Freedom": political analyst, Maxim Yali and the head of representation of the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Kyiv, Sergej Sumlenny in the program "Your Freedom" said: "Putin is interested in "special status" of the "DPR and LPR" which will de facto deprive Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic prospects. As well as amnesty for all militias, without exception. And this is and will be the main stumbling block»[4]. Will Volodymyr Zelensky be able to withstand the pressure of Macron or Trump, who will try to force him to accept Russia's condition is the key question. Whether he will be able to resist, defend Ukrainian national interests? It will be difficult to do. Now Ukraine, unfortunately, is not a subject of international relations, but an object. It is necessary to consider the interests of all participants every time. Zelensky needs to defend Ukrainian national interests, despite the enormous pressure that will now be placed on him. (To accept the "special status of Donbass" on the terms of Russia-ed.) will be a surrender. Judging by the statements (Razumkov-ed.), he really looks at this situation and realizes that it is impossible to make unilateral concessions to the Russian side. This threatens the national interests of Ukraine and the support of Volodymyr Zelensky, which could also cause a political crisis in Kyiv, in particular.

"Zelensky now understands that in fact it ("stop shooting-ed.) is not so easy. For Putin, the main thing is to force Ukraine to capitulate. On the one hand, Europe is very interested in reaching some agreements, no matter how much it will cost Ukraine. On the other hand, apart from the "Normandy format", Europe has nothing to offer. In fact, we are talking about going back to the Minsk agreements, which are virtually impossible to implement, because one side does not want to implement them, and the other side can not. Europe, unfortunately, does not feel the threat of full-scale aggression from Russia. First of all, Germany and France. Because they are NATO members. Every politician thinks from the point of view of his own political interests. "Special status" is a possible "domino effect".[5]

What Ukraine should do in this situation? To defend itself by military means! According to the former commander of the Joint Forces Operation, Sergei Naev, the liberation of the occupied territories won't take long. "Direct military action will take very little time - less than a day. The main thing in this case - a very quick action to reach the Ukrainian border and gain a foothold there," Naev said. At the same time, according to the former commander, the occupiers are preparing a decisive offensive. We know the threatening directions on line of contact, and there are more than ten. In all these areas, we are ready to respond to the active actions of the enemy," the former commander of the Joint Forces Operation stressed.[6]

Therefore, the long-awaited Normandy format meeting will take place. And the result of this meeting, will be mainly influenced by whether "DPR and LPR" will have the "special status", what Russia actually wants. It looks like Macron and Putin agreed to make a trap for Ukraine from the "Normandy format", taking advantage of the fact that Volodymyr Zelensky is a "newcomer" in foreign affairs. It is obvious that this meeting will be possible only on the terms of Russia, which now meet the French interests. Thus, we can assume that Ukraine is preparing for the second "throw", trying once again to deceive it like in the situation with the Budapest Memorandum.

 

[2] https://prm.ua/zelenskiy-poprosiv-putina-vplinuti-na-pripinennya-diy-na-donbasi/

[4] https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/30119618.html

[5] https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/30119618.html

[6]https://censor.net.ua/ua/news/3126473/bezposeredno_na_viyiskovi_diyi_zi_zvilnennya_donbasu_potribno_menshe_doby_nayev

The dilemma of getting out of the "internal conflict" paradigm in the Donbass (dialogue Zelensky - Putin - Macron)

On August 7, Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky had a telephone conversation with French President, Emmanuel Macron. It is noted that during a conversation, Zelensky informed his French counterpart about the deaths of four Ukrainian soldiers as a result of shelling." The head of state noted that this is not the first shelling by the enemy, which aims to disrupt the peace process initiated by the Ukrainian side. The President of Ukraine also informed Emmanuel Macron about other steps aimed at a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, in particular the restoration of infrastructure, exchange of prisoners, etc", the report says.[1]

On the same day, Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky during a telephone conversation with Russian President, Vladimir Putin asked him to influence the cessation of hostilities in the Donbass. This was reported by the President of Ukraine during a briefing broadcast by the TV channel "Pryamiy". "I urgently called him and said that this does not bring us closer to peace. I ask you to influence the other side so that they stop killing our people." In addition, the head of state in conversation with the Russian side stressed the need to accelerate the construction of the bridge in the Stanytsia Luhanska and the return of Ukrainian prisoners.

The President of Ukraine also noted that he initiated telephone conversations with the leaders of the Normandy format countries. "We need to meet with the Normandy Four leaders as soon as possible. To look each other in the eye. And to end this war," he stressed. "I want to contact Ms. Merkel in the near future and agree on an urgent meeting so that we no longer tell each other that this year there should be a Normandy format meeting. How many more people may be killed this year?" the President said.[2]

Fort de Brégançon – Operation "Seduction of Putin" – that’s how French journalists called a joint press conference of Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin in the South of France, which took place on August 19. French media explain such  Macron's "courtship" to Putin by the fact that France and the EU want to keep Russia as a business partner, and Moscow is maneuvering that it can find more interesting markets in China. During the meeting, Putin reminded that about 500 French companies operate in Russia and the total amount of French investments in Russia reaches 17 billion euros. Therefore, it is not surprising that France calls for dialogue with Russia, and Macron "believes in a great Europe – from Lisbon to Vladivostok", as well as that it is possible to "invent a new architecture of security and trust between Russia and the EU."

During the discussion of the Ukrainian issue, both Presidents stated the need for a new meeting in the "Normandy format" in the near future, but with specific preliminary arrangements so that this summit will have practical significance. Also, both Macron and Putin expressed optimism about resolving the situation in the Donbass after their contacts with the new Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky. "The coming to power of President Zelensky is a real change in the situation. And we see new opportunities in the "Normandy format" summit in the next few weeks, " Emmanuel Macron said during the meeting. Vladimir Putin also confirmed his readiness for the meeting: "We must do this. There is no alternative to the " Normandy format", so we will support it."[3]

Guests of the program "Your Freedom": political analyst, Maxim Yali and the head of representation of the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Kyiv, Sergej Sumlenny in the program "Your Freedom" said: "Putin is interested in "special status" of the "DPR and LPR" which will de facto deprive Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic prospects. As well as amnesty for all militias, without exception. And this is and will be the main stumbling block»[4]. Will Volodymyr Zelensky be able to withstand the pressure of Macron or Trump, who will try to force him to accept Russia's condition is the key question. Whether he will be able to resist, defend Ukrainian national interests? It will be difficult to do. Now Ukraine, unfortunately, is not a subject of international relations, but an object. It is necessary to consider the interests of all participants every time. Zelensky needs to defend Ukrainian national interests, despite the enormous pressure that will now be placed on him. (To accept the "special status of Donbass" on the terms of Russia-ed.) will be a surrender. Judging by the statements (Razumkov-ed.), he really looks at this situation and realizes that it is impossible to make unilateral concessions to the Russian side. This threatens the national interests of Ukraine and the support of Volodymyr Zelensky, which could also cause a political crisis in Kyiv, in particular.

"Zelensky now understands that in fact it ("stop shooting-ed.) is not so easy. For Putin, the main thing is to force Ukraine to capitulate. On the one hand, Europe is very interested in reaching some agreements, no matter how much it will cost Ukraine. On the other hand, apart from the "Normandy format", Europe has nothing to offer. In fact, we are talking about going back to the Minsk agreements, which are virtually impossible to implement, because one side does not want to implement them, and the other side can not. Europe, unfortunately, does not feel the threat of full-scale aggression from Russia. First of all, Germany and France. Because they are NATO members. Every politician thinks from the point of view of his own political interests. "Special status" is a possible "domino effect".[5]

What Ukraine should do in this situation? To defend itself by military means! According to the former commander of the Joint Forces Operation, Sergei Naev, the liberation of the occupied territories won't take long. "Direct military action will take very little time - less than a day. The main thing in this case - a very quick action to reach the Ukrainian border and gain a foothold there," Naev said. At the same time, according to the former commander, the occupiers are preparing a decisive offensive. We know the threatening directions on line of contact, and there are more than ten. In all these areas, we are ready to respond to the active actions of the enemy," the former commander of the Joint Forces Operation stressed.[6]

Therefore, the long-awaited Normandy format meeting will take place. And the result of this meeting, will be mainly influenced by whether "DPR and LPR" will have the "special status", what Russia actually wants. It looks like Macron and Putin agreed to make a trap for Ukraine from the "Normandy format", taking advantage of the fact that Volodymyr Zelensky is a "newcomer" in foreign affairs. It is obvious that this meeting will be possible only on the terms of Russia, which now meet the French interests. Thus, we can assume that Ukraine is preparing for the second "throw", trying once again to deceive it like in the situation with the Budapest Memorandum.

 

[2] https://prm.ua/zelenskiy-poprosiv-putina-vplinuti-na-pripinennya-diy-na-donbasi/

[4] https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/30119618.html

[5] https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/30119618.html

[6]https://censor.net.ua/ua/news/3126473/bezposeredno_na_viyiskovi_diyi_zi_zvilnennya_donbasu_potribno_menshe_doby_nayev