Foreign Policy Research Institute

+38 (044) 287 52 58

Foreign Policy Research Institute

tel. +38 (044) 287 52 58


Source: Army FM  

  • Changes at the front


In the second half of October, active combat actions took place along the entire front line.

In the Luhansk direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) attacked in the direction of Svatove and tried to advance on Kreminna. However, the strengthening of Russian troops by recently mobilized Russian citizens allowed them to stop the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction and to counterattack on Ukrainian positions.

On the Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivske directions, the occupiers tried to attack. According to Serhiy Cherevaty, a representative of the Eastern Group of Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the invaders loose about 100 soldiers per day near Bakhmut and Avdiivka. And this affects their morale.

The Russian army is trying to surround the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Vuhledar. Near Pavlivka, as Forbes noted, Russian troops, namely the 155th Marine Brigade, suffered the biggest losses in a single operation for a small group of elite forces since the wars in Chechnya in the 1990s.

In the southern direction, the Russians strengthened due to the mobilized and suspended the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, the invaders are preparing Kherson for defense. The enemy continues to resort to looting and destruction of civilian infrastructure in the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson region. So, on November 7, columns of trucks with household appliances and building materials moved through the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. The dismantling and removal of equipment, mobile communication towers of Ukrainian operators continues. Near the city of Beryslav, Russian invaders blew up power lines and equipment of a solar power plant. From the Kherson Regional Museum of Shovkunenko, the occupiers took out all the art treasures, furniture and equipment.


  • Military assistance


In the second half of October, it became known about the transfer of the following weapons to Ukraine from the partner countries:


- Ultra-small reconnaissance UAVs Black Hornet


- Hand grenades m/50


- 2 NASAMS complexes


- 28 M-55S tanks

Czech Republic:

- Tank T-72 "Tomaš"


- TRML-4D radar, which is the main means of detection for the IRIS-T SLM battery

- 5 Armored repair and evacuation vehicle Bergepanzer 2

- 7 heavy and medium bridge systems

- 167,000 cartridges for firearms

- 200 tents

- 195 generators

- 116,000 winter jackets

- 80,000 winter pants

- 240,000 winter hats


- 7 Toyota Land Cruiser 200 armored SUVs


- 120-mm mortars Mod. 63


- 16 Renault Trucks 4×4 D220 trucks are provided to support the medical, engineering and logistics units of the Armed Forces.


  • Russia: internal and external challenges


1. The address of the Russian minister caused irritation on the part of international partners. A joint statement by the US, France and the UK said: "Earlier today, the defense ministers of each of our countries spoke with Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu at his request. Our countries have made it clear that we all reject Russia's blatantly false claims that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb in its own territory. The world will see through any attempt to use this statement as a pretext for escalation. We also reject any pretext for escalation on the part of Russia." The countries also confirmed their unwavering support for Ukraine.

2. Unlike the governments of the partner countries, numerous pro-Russian and anti-American experts picked up on Russian propaganda. Shoigu's words were also accepted in some non-Western countries. Thus, the Indian Defense Minister called on both sides "not to resort to nuclear escalation", despite the fact that Ukraine is officially a non-nuclear state. In order to finally dispel the Russian fake, Ukraine turned to the IAEA with a proposal to conduct an appropriate investigation. As expected, the International Atomic Energy Agency found no signs of nuclear activity and materials to create a "dirty bomb." 

Thus, the Russian fake was aimed at intimidating Ukraine's international partners. Vladimir Putin uses escalation tactics: first he announces mobilization against the background of heavy losses, then Russia strikes the energy infrastructure and threatens to blow up the Kakhovka Dam. Next - nuclear blackmail in the hope of splitting the West and with the help of intermediaries to force Ukraine to make peace.

3. Russian statements were made against the background of ongoing offensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the South. Another fake spread by the Kremlin was the information about Russia's alleged retreat from Kherson. In fact, Russia is preparing an echelon defense and preparing for street battles in the city. This information was confirmed by the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov. According to Budanov, the occupiers are creating the illusion that "everything is gone." And at the same time, on the contrary, they bring new military units there and prepare the streets of the city for defense. The Russians understand that if the Armed Forces take control of even the Kakhovska dam, which is now the only fully functioning transport artery, then "they will have to make a very quick decision" whether to leave the city very, very quickly. Otherwise, the Russian military may end up in a situation similar to that in which the Ukrainian units in Mariupol found themselves in the spring, Budanov said. "Understanding all this, they are preparing the groundwork so that, if necessary, they can get out of there very quickly. However, they are not preparing for an exit now, they are preparing for defense," concluded the head of the GUR.

The Russians did withdraw from some positions, however, other elite troops, reinforced by a large contingent of mobilized individuals, as of beginning of November, remained at their positions, and in some places even counterattacked. Therefore, taking control of Kherson may require significant efforts on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

1. Дмитро Дубенський Дата публікації, Чому путін з шойгу вийняли "брудну бомбу": чергова ескалація чи блеф із залякуванням, 24.10.2022,