Foreign Policy Research Institute

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Foreign Policy Research Institute

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Source: Army FM  

  • Changes at the front


In the second half of September and early October, the Defense Forces of Ukraine carried out successful offensive operations in the Kharkiv and Kherson directions. After the success in the Kharkiv region and the capture of Balakliya and Kupyansk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continued their offensive, pushed back the defensive positions of the Russians near the Oskil River and liberated the city of Lyman in the Donetsk region. As a result of the de-occupation of Yampil, Drobyshevo, Stavky, reaching point-blank range and taking fire control of the route from Torske to Kreminna, the Lyman enemy grouping was in a semi-encirclement and was forced to break through in battle. A significant part of the Russian units were captured or destroyed. Ukrainian troops continue their offensive already in the Luhansk region. As a result of the capture of Lyman, the Russian top military-political leadership was subjected to harsh criticism, in particular from the chairman of the Chechen Republic and the chairman of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin. For Ukraine, this is a positive precedent, indicating that domestic political tension will increase after Russia's military defeats, which will damage the position of the current Russian authorities.

In the Kherson region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine broke through the defense of the Russian occupation forces. As of November 4, the following settlements are known to have been liberated: Lyubimivka, Kreshchenivka, Zolota Balka, Belyaiivka, Ukrainka, Velyka Oleksandrivka, Mala Oleksandrivka, Davydiv Brid. Russian troops continue to inflict artillery, air and missile strikes on the Zaporizhzhya, Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The occupying troops attacked the cities of Mykolaiv, Ochakiv, Zaporizhzhya, Nikopol, Gulyaipole, Dnipro, Odesa and critical energy infrastructure in the vicinity of Krivyi Rig. In recent weeks, the active use of drones by Russia, which was transferred to the country by Iran, has been recorded. In the morning of September 30, Russian troops carried out a terrorist attack, inflicting a missile attack on a humanitarian convoy at the exit from Zaporizhzhya. As a result, 30 people died and 88 were injured.

In the Donetsk direction, Russian troops continued unsuccessful assaults on Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

It should be noted that the successful actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the East and South were preceded by successful Russian counterattacks in the Kherson region. Russia still retains a significant advantage in heavy weapons, tanks, artillery and aviation. The success of the Ukrainian Defense Forces is primarily the result of the talent of the Ukrainian military command, the motivation and sacrifice of Ukrainian defenders. Due to the lack of heavy equipment, Ukraine is suffering significant losses and requires increased assistance from partner countries to minimize casualties among personnel and speed up the process of de-occupation of territories before the onset of winter.


  • Military assistance


In the second half of September, Ukraine has received the following weapons:

From the USA:

- Additional ammunition for HIMARS rocket launcher systems

- 36,000 ammunition for 105-mm guns

- 1000 high-precision ammunition for 155-mm howitzers

- 4 counter-battery radars

- 4 trucks

- 8 trawls for transporting heavy equipment

- Anti-drone systems

- Demining equipment

- Claymore anti-personnel mines

- Explosive device

- Small arms and ammunition

- Night vision devices

- Winter clothes

- Other field equipment

- 12 Titan anti-drone systems

From Lithuania:

- Two batches of armored personnel carriers

From Belgium:

- Large-caliber machine guns and ammunition for them

From Germany:

- 2 "Mars II" multiple rocket launcher systems

- 200 GMLRS missiles

- 50 "Dingo ATF" type armored vehicles

- Anti-tank mines "AT-2"

- 6 “Gepard” installations

- 10 bridge systems

- 3 medium bridge systems

- 90 heavy-duty trailers for transporting heavy weapons

From the EU:

- Thermal imaging equipment for the total amount of 500 thousand euros


In addition, the US announced a new $1.2 billion aid package, which will include: 18 M142 HIMARS multiple launch systems; 150 armored high-mobility multipurpose wheeled vehicles (HMMWV); 150 tactical vehicles for towing weapons; 40 trucks and 80 trailers for transporting heavy equipment; two radars for unmanned aerial vehicles; 20 multipurpose radars; anti-drone air systems (probably "Titan"); protected communication systems, surveillance systems and optics; equipment for disposal of explosive objects; body armor and other field equipment; training, maintenance and support funding. 


  • Russia: internal and external challenges


Vladimir Putin announced a "partial" mobilization in Russia, as it was called to avoid panic among the population. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that 300,000 people are planned to be drafted into the army as part of the partial mobilization, but this figure is not included in the official document and the final number of people to be mobilized is classified. That is, the Kremlin probably plans to mobilize a larger number of people. According to the Russian edition "Meduza", this figure can be up to 1.2 million people.[1] Russia still has serious problems with training and equipping new soldiers. The first mobilized are already being thrown to the front to strengthen positions where units have lost a significant number of personnel. The quality and motivation of such fighters remains at a low level. In the first week after the announcement of mobilization, more than 2,000 Russians called Ukraine's hotline for information on how to surrender. With the arrival of winter, the psychological and physical condition of these fighters will drop even lower.

At the same time, it is worth noting that the number of mobilized Russians is significant and will definitely bring problems for Ukraine. Part of the mobilized are motivated fighters and in a few months they will be ready to kill Ukrainians. In addition, in Russia, ideological entrepreneurs began to join the military equipment, who collect money for the purchase of military equipment at their own expense and by organizing money raises.

It is likely that the Russians will have time to strengthen their own defensive positions in several directions and concentrate a significant number of personnel to maintain the occupied territory. Also, the option of a second invasion from the territory of Belarus is not excluded. This development of events requires an increase in military aid from partner countries to increase the effectiveness of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as increase the general pressure on the aggressor country and ordinary citizens of the Russian Federation. Now the US and the EU cannot say that this is Putin's war. Many Russians believe in the ideals of Russian world and are consciously preparing for upcoming hostilities.

1. У Росії збираються мобілізувати 1,2 млн осіб – Медуза, 23.09.2022,