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The course of the Russian-Ukrainian war (15.06 – 30.06.2022)

Source: Army FM

  • Changes at the front

In the Luhansk region, Russian troops captured Severodonetsk in the second half of June after massive assault attacks. As of the beginning of July, they also took control of the city of Lysychansk, having achieved V. Putin's first military and political goal - the complete occupation of the Luhansk region. Thus, the first significant break in the course of the second phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war in favour of Russia was marked. Of course, this is an unconditional military and political success of Russia in its war against Ukraine, which the Russian command will develop in the Donetsk direction. This is evidenced by the situation around Bakhmut, where, as noted by the Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov, the Russian troops have a significant advantage in terms of forces and means. Gromov stated that Russian forces are conducting operations in the direction of Soledar, which is located northeast of Bakhmut along the T0513 Bakhmut-Siversk route, and suggests that Russian forces are additionally seeking to block Ukrainian lines of communication along T0513.

At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to British intelligence, have shown the ability to continue to fight protracted battles, and then withdraw troops in the proper order before being encircled. This caused Russian forces to fight unsuccessfully throughout June for control of Klinovo and Novoluganskoye, both southeast of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repulsed a series of Russian attacks on the Nikolaiivka-Spirne, Vladymyrivka-Pokrovske lines northeast of Bakhmut and around the Dolomitne and Vuhledarska hydroelectric power stations south of Bakhmut. These limited gains around Bakhmut may indicate that Russian forces may soon attempt to set the stage for an offensive operation on Bakhmut itself, although they are likely to be more focused in the short term on cutting off and controlling lines of communication around Bakhmut.

In the Kharkiv region, the Russians continue artillery and rocket attacks on settlements, in particular, the city of Kharkiv. Also, the grouping of the RF Armed Forces was reinforced with tactical reserves to resume the attack on the administrative center, but the Russian troops had no success.

On the Avdiivka and Kurakhovo directions, Russia was not successful. Russian troops continue to shell Ukrainian cities and destroy the infrastructure left there. For 4 months of the war, the RF Armed Forces have not managed to cross the contact line near Avdiivka. Despite the advantage of the enemy in artillery, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the village of Pavlivka near Vuhledar.

As reported by the Southern Operational Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the southern direction, Ukrainian troops resumed control over Potemkin (north-western Kherson region) and continue their gradual advance from Krivyi Rih to the right bank of the Dnieper. According to the head of the Kherson police department, Hennadii Lahuta, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already liberated 20 settlements. The Russian grouping in Zaporizhzhia focused on defensive actions and fired at Ukrainian positions on the front line. Russian troops launched a series of missile, artillery and air strikes on the Mykolayiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa regions. In the Black Sea, the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out operation to liberate Snake Island. Part of the Russian equipment located on the island was destroyed, including the Russian “Pantsir” air defense systems.



  • Military assistance

In the second half of June, Ukraine has received the following weapons:
From Canada:
-10 replacement barrels for M777 howitzers
From Slovakia:
-Four Mi-17 multipurpose transport helicopters and one Mi-2
-Ammunition for 122-mm MLRS "Grad"
From Australia:
-First 4 M113 armored personnel carriers
From Germany:
-Previously announced Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled artillery installations (7 units)
From Netherlands:
-7 Panzerhaubitze 2000 (5 units)
From the USA:
-M142 HIMARS (4 units)
From EU:
-EU has started to deliver more than 90 off-road trucks
From Poland
-Foresters from Poland handed over 16 off-road vehicles
From Italy:
- Howitzers M777* (Quantity unknown)
From Estonia:
- Howitzers M777* (Quantity unknown)

Also, the Armed Forces received and are already using Bulgarian SPG-9 "Warrior" anti-tank grenade launchers. It is not yet known whether Ukraine received these weapons from the Bulgarian government as aid. Earlier, Bulgaria declared that it would not provide military aid to Ukraine. In addition, Azerbaijani-made "20N5" mortars were put into service with the Ukrainian military. In July, the supply of weapons will continue, in particular, the USA has already announced 2 new aid packages: 450 million and 820 million, which will include new HIMARS artillery systems, tens of thousands of ammunition for the artillery that has already been delivered to Ukraine, patrol ships to protect the Ukrainian coast and waterways, NASAMS air defense systems and counter-battery radars. Great Britain also announced a large-scale military support project worth 1 billion pounds. In particular, Great Britain and Norway agreed on the transfer of M270 MLRS to Ukraine. France, in turn, announced that it will transfer a "significant number" of VAB armored vehicles to Ukraine, as well as 6 Caesar self-propelled guns. From Canada, Ukraine will receive modern armored vehicles and 6 cameras for Bayraktar TB2 drone. In addition, thanks to the help of the Embassy of the Czech Republic in Ukraine, an anonymous Czech private company provided two Bivoj reconnaissance UAVs. In addition, Ukraine will receive 6 more Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled guns from Germany and the Netherlands.
Source:, *Telegram channel "Нет Войне"



  • Russia: internal and external challenges

1. In the second half of June, the Russian information field maintained rhetoric indicating preparations for the illegal annexation of the occupied territories of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin mentions the terms "denazification" and "demilitarization" less and less, instead, on June 29, Putin called "the protection of Donbas and the creation of conditions that guarantee Russia's security" as the "ultimate goal of the special operation". Probably, the short-term goal of the Russian leadership after the capture of Luhansk region is full control over the administrative borders of Donetsk region and the annexation of parts of Zaporizhzhia as well as Kherson regions. Preparations for the organization of "referendums" are being carried out in the occupied territories, and a bill on the procedure for accession of new territories into the Russian Federation has been submitted to the State Duma. The billboards on which the anniversary of the Tavria province is noted are placed on the streets of the occupied cities.

2. On the part of the Russian and Belarusian leadership, the number of threats towards NATO member countries has increased. Before the summit of the North Atlantic Alliance in Madrid, the state corporation "Roscosmos" published satellite images of its venue and 8 "decision-making centers" that support Ukraine: coordinates of facilities located in the USA, France, Great Britain, Belgium and Germany. There were the White House, the Pentagon, NATO Headquarters among the coordinates.

Lithuania also received threats, after the country implemented the decision of the European Union and banned the transit through its territory by rail to and from Kaliningrad of a number of goods that were included in the fourth package of sanctions of the European Union against the Russian Federation. In response, the temporary chargé d'affaires of Lithuania in the Russian Federation, Virginia Umbrasene, was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and handed a demand to immediately remove all restrictions. Otherwise, the Russian Foreign Ministry threatened, Moscow "reserves the right to act to protect its interests". Also, the decision of the EU was called a violation of the country's sovereignty in Russia. On the night of June 25-26, the President of Russia suddenly convened a night meeting in the Kremlin. It is quite likely that the expediency of starting hostilities against the Baltic state was discussed at the meeting. Thus, there is a danger that Russia may use the situation with the ban on the transit of goods as a Casus Belli and attack Lithuania.

3. Recently, nuclear rhetoric has been preserved and even intensified in Russia. First, at the economic forum in St. Petersburg, Vladimir Putin said: "Everyone should know what we have (nuclear weapons) and we will use it if necessary to protect our sovereignty." After that, on June 25, during a meeting with Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, Putin announced that he would transfer Iskander-M missiles to Belarus, stressing that they were capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The last speech was made against the background of Lithuania's implementation of the EU decision to ban the transit of goods from Kaliningrad and to Kaliningrad. The deployment of nuclear weapons on the territory of the Republic of Belarus is a quite probable scenario, given that a commission of the 12th Chief Directorate of Nuclear Technical Support and Security of the RF Ministry of Defense arrived on the territory of the Republic of Belarus at the end of June to assess the real state and possibilities for carrying out restoration work at nuclear facilities of this country, which functioned during the Soviet era. It should be noted that in March 2022, new amendments to the provisions of the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus came into force following the results of the "constitutional referendum" dated February 27 this year. According to the new version of the constitution of the Republic of Belarus, the article on the non-nuclear status of the country has been canceled.

4. The possibility of an attack by the armed forces of Belarus on Ukraine also remains. The country continues military exercises near the Ukrainian border and, according to the Ukrainian General Staff, is exploring the possibility of conducting covert mobilization of the population. In addition, the Belarusian president's rhetoric towards Ukraine and neighbouring countries has become more militant. In his televised address, Lukashenko said: "Today, the countries of the post-Soviet space should be sincerely interested in rapprochement with the union state, if, of course, they want to preserve sovereignty and independence." Also, Lukashenka again cynically announced the threat from Poland: “We cannot allow the Poles to encircle us”. This is the most dangerous option. And I once said: the Ukrainians will also ask us with the Russians to help them maintain integrity.” Against the backdrop of a possible attack, the western regions of Ukraine are actively preparing for defense.

 Росія детально: події та тренди в РФ за минулий тиждень (27.06-01.07), 01.07.2022,
2) Кремль погрожує Литві: привід для війни чи пропагандистська кампанія?, 22.06.2022,
3) Бомба для Лукашенка. Чи дасть Росія ядерну зброю Білорусі — експерт, 29.06.2022
4) Костянтин Машовець, 27.06.2022,
5) Лукашенко заявив, що Білорусі «доведеться реагувати на націлювання Польщі на Західну Україну», 17.06.2022,