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THE COURSE OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR (15.02 – 28.02.2023)

Source: Army FM  

 
  • Changes at the front

 

Trend: The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a state of total positional defense. The Russian occupying forces, possessing the strategic initiative, continue their intensive offensive.

The main battles at the front continue to unfold in the east of Ukraine.

On the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the direction of the settlements of Hryanikyvka, Bilogorivka, Spirne, Vyimka, Nevske, and Fedorivka.

Russian occupation forces continue their assault on the city of Bakhmut and have probably advanced to the northwest of the city. Russian troops probably captured Dubovo-Vasylivka. Russian forces also made minor gains in the southern part of Bakhmut along the t0513 route. At the same time, the Defense Forces of Ukraine, despite the difficult situation, intensified counter-attacking actions in the western part of the city. Bakhmut is semi-surrounded and the military leadership may soon decide to withdraw all units from there. However, at the moment, there is no such decision, probably due to the effectiveness of the defense of the Armed Forces, as a result of which Russian troops suffer 5-7 times more losses than Ukrainian military. It is also worth understanding that in the case of a retreat from the positions in Bakhmut, the next cities that Russia will destroy with its artillery and air strikes will be Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka.

Russian troops also advanced around Avdiivka. Since the occupiers have not been able to capture the city for more than a year, the Russians focused on trying to take Avdiivka into an operational encirclement, and directed large forces to the settlements of Vodiane and Nevelske. At the beginning of March, Russian troops massively attacked Avdiivka with tactical air missiles, completely destroying buildings in the city. The Russians continue unsuccessful offensive actions in the direction of Maryinka and Vuhledar.

Currently, both sides, Ukraine and Russia, face the problem of a shortage of shells. According to Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the "Wagner" PMC, the Russian leadership cut off the emergency communication lines for him so that Prigozhin could not appeal about the lack of ammunition. At the same time, Ukraine expects an increase in the supply of artillery shells from the USA and the EU. At the beginning of March, the heads of the EU defense departments agreed to provide Ukraine with immediate military assistance, during following weeks, which includes 155-mm and 152-mm projectiles.

 

  • Military assistance

 

In the second half of February, Ukraine has received the following weapons

From France:

• the first batch of 14 AMX-10RC armored combat vehicles

• AKERON ATGM

From Great Britain:

• APC FV432 Bulldog (Quantity unknown)

From Poland:

• PT-91 tanks (Up to 60 units)

• Leopard 2 tanks (4 units)

From Bulgaria:

• 40-mm high-explosive fragmentation shots OGi-7MA for RPG-7

From Germany:

• 6 BIBER bridge-layers

• 8 Zetros trucks

• 20,000 first-aid kits

• 10 winter camouflage nets

• SurveilSPIRE automated surveillance systems

From Estonia:

• rifles

• pistols

• unmanned aerial vehicles

• thermal imagers

• generators and chargers

• clothes for military personnel

From Denmark:

• Mowag Eagle armored vehicles

 

Also, France is preparing to transfer 25 AMX-10P armored vehicles to Ukraine. Finland announced the 13th package of military equipment for Ukraine in the amount of 160 million euros. Australia, in turn, announced its intention to provide Ukraine with UAVs worth 33 million euros.

The US announced two new aid packages. The first is worth 500 million dollars, which in particular includes missiles for the HIMARS system and anti-tank missile complexes JAVELIN. The second package of military aid to Ukraine is worth 2 billion dollars. This aid package includes, inter alia: additional ammunition for the High Mobility Artillery Missile Systems (HIMARS); additional 155 mm caliber artillery shells; ammunition for reactive systems with laser guidance; CyberLux K8 UAS; Switchblade 600 UAS; Altius-600 UAS; • Jump 20 UAS; means of detecting UAVs and electronic warfare; demining equipment; Secure communication support equipment; Funding for training, maintenance and support.
Source: Mil.ua.

Ukraine is still waiting for the decision of the USA or partner countries regarding the provision of modern aircraft. A tank coalition was formed in February, but there is still no air coalition. According to Ben Hodges, Joe Biden is currently rejecting the possibility of transferring F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine because he is receiving bad advice from the National Security Council and the Pentagon. "They think very traditionally and linearly. They, as before, do not concentrate on what is most important. And the most important thing is Ukraine's victory in the war. The most important thing is to liberate Crimea," Hodges emphasized. There are groups in the United States of America advocating the provision of modern aircraft to Ukraine. In particular, on February 17, it became known that five congressmen from both parties called on the US president to give Ukraine F-16 fighter jets. The letter was signed by Congressman Jared Golden, Jason Crowe and Chrissy Houlahan from the Democratic Party, and Tony Gonzalez and Mike Gallagher from the Republican Party. Thus, discussions regarding the provision of modern fighter jets to Ukraine are in progress. At the current stage, the Ukrainian leadership is trying to agree, if not on the transfer, then on the training of military personnel in order to use modern aviation as soon as the partners have the political will to take such a step. Taking into account the dynamics of the supply of weapons to Ukraine, a decision on the transfer of aircraft can probably be made this year. However, the sooner this happens, the sooner Ukraine's victory will come and with fewer casualties on the battlefield. 

 

  • Russia: internal and external challenges

 

(V. Putin's new policy statements on the anniversary of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine: what should we expect?)

On February 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered his annual message to the Federal Assembly. The speech of the President of Russia has traditionally been full of anti-Western rhetoric and a fictional interpretation of events aimed at justifying armed aggression.

During the address, it was announced that Russia would suspend the New START treaty, which should be perceived as another manifestation of Kremlin nuclear blackmail. After the election of Joe Biden, the first talks between the newly elected US president and the head of the Kremlin in Geneva in the summer of 2021 were specifically related to issues of strategic stability and, in particular, about the implementation of the New START treaty. Thus, an attempt is made to demonstrate the importance of the Russian Federation for global security. At the same time, Putin, by suspending participation in the treaty, satisfies the request of the patriotic part of the population. Russia is once again demonstrating its destructive role, since although the aggressor country probably does not have the resources for a new nuclear arms race, withdrawing from the treaty is a blow to the non-proliferation regime.

Speaking about the occupied territories of Ukraine, the head of the Kremlin once again announced the "will of the residents" of these territories. Russian rhetoric demonstrates a lack of readiness to return the territories of Ukraine, which contrasts sharply with the peace initiatives offered to Ukraine and Russia by some international partners.

Vladimir Putin continues to rely on the Russian deep nation, whose loyalty he wins through powerful propaganda and increased social benefits. This time, the Russian president has again announced a number of social programs, in particular for Russian military personnel participating in the aggression against Ukraine. A number of infrastructure programs were announced: "It was decided to extend the Moscow-Kazan high-speed highway to Irkutsk, and later to the border with Mongolia and China... We will develop the North-South corridor, modernize the Trans-Siberian Railway and BAM, develop the Northern Corridor." Considering Russia's economic losses due to the restrictive measures introduced as a result of the Russian full-scale invasion, the implementation of these initiatives is unlikely. In addition, the president of Russia promised to continue the implementation of "all national projects", to ensure the regions' access to the appropriate funds and to raise wages for the country's population. Thus, Putin is trying to demonstrate that the war and sanctions have not affected Russia. The Russian leadership seeks to ensure the support of the population in the conditions of war by maintaining the image of stability, in exchange for a consensus on the continuation of aggression against Ukraine. Putin is preparing the Russian population for a long war of attrition.