Trend: The strategic balance forces the warring parties to switch to prolonged positional defense.

In the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Belohorivka, Luhansk region. Russian troops carried out limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

In the Luhansk direction, after receiving British Storm Shadow cruise missiles, Ukrainian troops are shelling Russian rear areas.

In the Avdiyivka direction, the Russian occupying forces continue offensive actions, however, they have not achieved significant success.

In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy continues to conduct offensive actions. Heavy fighting continues for Bakhmut. The enemy also conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the direction of Ivanivske. The Ukrainian army is carrying out counterattacks on the flanks around the city of Bakhmut.

In the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions the enemy continues to conduct defensive operations. The Armed Forces of Ukraine carry out systematic attacks on enemy warehouses, headquarters and points of enemy concentration.

In the first half of May, Russia increased the intensity of missile strikes and drone strikes on the territory of Ukraine. The likely goal of these Russian campaigns is to exhaust the Ukrainian air defense system and reduce Ukraine's counteroffensive capabilities.

 

In the first half of May, it became known about the transfer of the following weapons to Ukraine:

The USA:

- Zuni air-to-ground missiles;

- additional air defense systems and ammunition;

- Equipment for the integration of western air defense systems into the air defense system of Ukraine;

- Ammunition for combating UAVs;

- 155 mm caliber artillery shells;

- Services of commercial satellite images;

- Support for training, maintenance and support activities;

- ammunition for HIMARS;

- 155-mm howitzers;

- 155 mm caliber artillery ammunition;

- mortar ammunition caliber 120 mm, 81 mm and 60 mm;

- anti-tank guided missiles for ATGM TOW-2;

- AT-4 and Carl Gustaf anti-tank grenade launchers;

- Hydra-70 aviation missiles;

- small arms and ammunition for them;

- explosive ammunition for destroying obstacles;

- trucks and trailers for transporting heavy equipment;

- test and diagnostic equipment for maintenance and repair of vehicles;

- spare parts and other field equipment;

Romania:

- MLRS APR-40

- M1981 howitzers

Czech Republic:

- SAM "Kub" (2 complexes)

Italy:

- wheeled tanks "B1 Centauro" (quantity unknown)

Poland:

- The number of transferred MiG-29 aircraft has increased to 14 units.

Switzerland:

- 20 demining machines

United Kingdom:

- Storm Shadow cruise missiles

- completed transfer of all previously announced Challenger 2 (14 units)

 

The European Commission also allocated 500 million euros to support ammunition production for Ukraine. Germany allocates a new package of military aid to Ukraine worth 2.7 billion euros. The full content of the aid package is currently not detailed, however, the Spiegel publication reported the day before that Berlin plans to transfer 20 Marder BMPs and 30 Leopard 1 tanks, as well as 18 RCH 155 wheeled howitzers, the transfer of which was announced in 2022. Denmark, in turn, will provide Ukraine with a new package of military aid worth 250 million dollars. It should include vehicles, special equipment, air defense systems and artillery ammunition.
Source: Mil.ua

Trend: Bakhmut as a reason for another manifestation of «victorymania».

On May 9 a traditional Victory Day parade took place in Moscow. At the same time, 24 Russian cities refused to hold Victory Day. The event in Moscow was different from previous years. In addition to the absence of a traditional holiday atmosphere, the event was smaller in scale and shorter in time. Due to the participation in hostilities and the destruction of a significant amount of equipment in Ukraine, the parade on Red Square did not include most of the modern equipment of the Russian army, except for missile systems and air defense systems.

Russia's actions have already been evaluated by the International Criminal Court in the form of an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin. However, this did not prevent the leaders of six countries: Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan from coming to the war criminal with reverence.

Vladimir Putin made a 10-minute speech in which he called the so-called "special military operation" a war, which it really is. However, at the same time, the war, which was allegedly unleashed against Russia. The head of the Kremlin called the Ukrainian people hostages of the coup and the criminal regime, although after the 2013 revolution, two democratic presidential elections have already taken place in Ukraine. In his speech, Putin also drew parallels with Russian soldiers of the past in an attempt to emphasize the legacy of generations of the Russian military. Russian propaganda actively promotes the image of the heroism of Russian military personnel, who supposedly protect Russia from external threats, ’’as their ancestors once did’’. What is important, such ideas are popular not only at the level of the Russian political leadership, but also at the level of citizens. In the so-called intellectual circles of Russia, aggression against Ukraine enjoys active support: songs about PMC Wagner are popularized by teachers at schools, while exhibitions dedicated to Russian invaders are regularly held in Moscow contemporary art galleries.

Wagner did not manage to capture the city of Bakhmut before 9^th of May, as the Russian leadership wanted, and in particular, because of this, there was no traditional victory obsession atmosphere in Russia at this day. The head of the terrorist organization Yevgeny Prigozhin previously compared the battle for Soledar with the battle of the Soviet army for Stalingrad. However, it is Bakhmut that can become Stalingrad for Russians. The battle for this city exhausted the offensive potential of Nazi German grouping, which was followed by a counteroffensive operation of the Soviet army. Currently, the Russian troops in Bakhmut are losing their ability to attack. On the flanks of the city, the Ukrainian army systematically conducts successful counter-attacks. The next stage of the Russian-Ukrainian war may be another counter-offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.