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THE COURSE OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR (01.03 – 15.03.2023)

Source: Army FM  

 
  • Changes at the front

 

Trend: Russian occupation forces continue limited offensive attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Bakhmut remains the epicenter of hostilities. In the direction of Bakhmut, Ukrainian troops conducted defensive operations 11 km northwest of Bakhmut in the area of Orihovo-Vasilykva and Hryhorivka and 6 km southwest of Bakhmut in the area of Ivanivske and Klishchiivka. Russian troops are gradually surrounding the city and trying to cut the T0504 road. At the same time, the occupiers are losing their offensive potential and their activity around the city began to decrease.

Russian occupation troops continue shelling Avdiyivka and are gradually advancing around the city in an attempt to surround it from Krasnohorivka and Vesele in the north-eastern direction of the city, as well as from Vodyane and Opytne in the south-western direction. The main road to Avdiivka is shot by the occupiers. 2,000 residents remain in the city, 6 of them are children.

Near Vuhledar, Russia threw reserves to reinforce the 155th brigade and additionally introduced two tank companies. However, as a result of heavy losses, the activity of the occupying forces in this direction has decreased.

In the Zaporizhzhya direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began checking the positions of the occupiers. In particular, Ukrainian troops made attempts to advance in the direction of the city of Polohy.

Russian troops continue to build defensive fortifications along land communications in and near the occupied Crimea, preparing for possible counter-offensive operations by the Ukrainian army.?

 

  • Military assistance

 

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI, as a result of military aid from the United States and partner countries, after the Russian full-scale invasion, Ukraine became the 3rd largest arms importer during 2022, behind only Qatar and India.

In the first half of March, it became known that the Armed Forces of Ukraine has received the following weapons:

From the USA:

  • GMLRS high-precision missiles for HIMARS
  • ammunition for howitzers
  • ammunition for Bradley infantry fighting vehicles
  • armored bridge-layers AVLB

From the Czech Republic:

  • Air defense complexes "Victor" (15 units)

From Germany:

  • Anti-aircraft installations Gepard (2 units)
  • Ammunition for Gepard anti-aircraft installations

From Poland:

  • Leopard 2 (10 units)

From Italy:

  • Self-propelled guns M109L (Quantity unknown)

From the Netherlands:

  • pontoon crossings M3 Amphibious Rig

From Denmark:

  • 5.56 mm cartridges for small arms
  • 12.7-mm heavy machine guns
  • anti-tank mines
  • missiles for air defense systems
  • projectile charges for 155-mm projectiles
  • 21 demining robots
  • 15 generators for military needs
  • 15 thousand sets of clothes to protect against rain
  • nine mobile heavy equipment repair stations
  • six hangar tents

From Canada:

  • Leopard 2 tanks (Quantity unknown)
  • BREM
  • 8,000 155 mm ammunition
  • 12 anti-aircraft missiles
  • 1800 training ammunition for 105-mm tanks

On March 15, the 10th meeting of the "Rammstein" contact group took place. According to the results of the meeting, it became known that Sweden will provide Ukraine with 10 tanks, Norway, together with the USA, will hand over new air defense systems NASAMS. The Netherlands and Slovenia also announced military aid without specifying positions. According to Ambassador Vadym Prystayko, Great Britain will transfer twice as many Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine as promised (probably 28 units). It became known that the Ukrainian army has already received Swedish RBS 70 short-range air defense systems. Currently, it is not known who gave this type of weapon to Ukraine, but the possible donors may be Sweden, Norway, Lithuania and Latvia. In addition, Israel allowed two of its defense companies to sell anti-drone systems to Ukraine.

Also, Finland is preparing the 14th package of defense aid to Ukraine, and Poland and Slovakia agreed to transfer 33 MiG29s to Ukraine. The Danish government, in turn, will this year create a fund worth 7 billion Danish kroner (1.01 billion US dollars) for military, civilian and business aid to Ukraine.

 

  • Russia: internal and external challenges

 

Since the full-scale invasion, the Russian Federation has suffered significant losses. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have destroyed almost 170,000 personnel of the occupying state, about 3,500 tanks, almost 6,900 armored vehicles, 305 airplanes and 290 helicopters. The aggressor state found itself in semi-isolation and became the entity subject to the largest number of sanctions in history. Despite the significant material and human losses, the Russian leadership is not going to stop the invasion.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues his long-term mobilization. On April 1, a new recruitment of contract servicemen will begin in the Russian Federation. The Ministry of Defense of Russia plans to add another 400,000 soldiers to the army. There is no doubt that the armed forces of Russia will be able to do this. The majority of Russian society supports the war against Ukraine. According to the Russian Field poll, the majority of Russians, 80%, believe that Russia is moving in the right direction. 64% of the respondents would not cancel the start of the "military operation" if they could go back in time, and 37% of the respondents stated that the "military operation" did not affect their lives in any way.

At the level of public consciousness, Russians feel the danger of the defeat of their state in the war and fear the possible collapse of Russia. Therefore, for the Russian population, the Russian-Ukrainian war is existential. Under such conditions, the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war is possible only under the condition of a military victory of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.


Sources:

1. У Росії хочуть набрати до армії ще 400 тисяч контрактників ЗМІ, 15.03.2022,
URL: https://suspilne.media/414336-u-rosii-hocut-nabrati-do-armii-se-400-tisac-kontraktnikiv/

2. Russian Field, Соціологія, 15.03.2023,
URL: https://t.me/russian_field_soc/679