Source: Army FM
- Changes at the front
The transition of the Defense Forces of Ukraine to positional defense became the main trend of the winter military campaign of 2023. Last year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine conducted a rapid counter-offensive in the direction of Kharkiv. Ukrainian troops defeated the occupying forces, liberated a large part of Kharkiv region, part of Luhansk region and Donetsk region, and pushed the Russians back to Luhansk. Back then the military leadership of the country decided not to advance further to Svatove, probably due to the lack of reserves and heavy equipment. The Ukrainian leadership expected an increase in military aid from the United States and European countries in order to have the necessary capabilities to push the occupying forces out of Ukrainian territories. Last year, however, the necessary help from partners was not provided.
Since the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, Russia has managed to conduct mobilization and as of now Ukraine no longer has a significant advantage in manpower. Russian troops have been setting up defensive positions for several months. Together with the mobilization of manpower, the Russian Federation regained the strategic initiative, and Ukraine is now on the defensive posture again. Cities in the East are attacked every day by motivated Russian soldiers. Their fighting spirit does not fall and the potential to attack is preserved. According to the Foreign Policy, the occupiers already have 1,800 tanks, 4,000 armored vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 8 hundred jet systems, 400 airplanes and 300 helicopters in combat mode. In the first half of February, Russian troops launched a major offensive in the Luhansk direction along the Svatove-Kreminna line. However, Ukrainian forces have prevented the Russian troops from achieving significant success. The Russians are conducting offensive actions in the areas of the settlements of Masyutivka, Nevske, Bilogorivka, Spirne, Fedorivka, as well as in the area of Serebryansk Forestry.
Russian troops continue to gradually advance in the direction of Bakhmut at the cost of heavy losses. According to analysts of the Institute for the Study of War, the Russian Federation could abandon the idea of encircling Bakhmut and try to enter the city from the north. Geolocation images published on February 22 indicate that occupation forces have advanced to the E40 route south of Zaliznyanskyi and north of Bakhmut.
Russian troops continued their offensive on the western outskirts of Donetsk. The General Staff of Ukraine reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian assaults within 32 km southwest of Avdiivka near Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, Pobieda and Novomykhailivka. Geolocation images published on February 13 show that Russian troops advanced to Novobakhmutivka (13 km northeast of Avdiivka) and probably captured the settlement.
Russia unsuccessfully tries to carry out offensive actions near Vuhledar. According to the information of the General Staff of Ukraine, in connection with the failure of the offensive and significant losses in manpower near Vuhledar, the personnel of the volunteer, so-called Cossack detachment, which was attached to the 155th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Federation, refuses to participate in further offensive actions. According to GUR estimates, the losses of the Russian occupying forces in February are the highest since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
The short-term goal of the occupiers is to seize the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and in the coming months the prospects of a Ukrainian counteroffensive are much smaller than a few months before, because currently the conditions for the Ukrainian troops have become worse, compared to the fall of 2022. A likely option for the further development of events will be the defense of Ukrainian forces until the summer of this year. In the future, subject to the supply of the necessary equipment, Ukraine can proceed to counter-offensive actions.
Therefore, Ukraine needs an increase in military aid here and now. Procrastination will play into Russia's hands. It is necessary not only to transfer modern weapons to Ukraine, but also to use the existing capabilities of the military-industrial complex of European countries and the USA. With the existing industrial capacity and potential, the NATO countries could provide Ukraine with the necessary means. This concerns speeding up the production of shells, tanks, AFVs, and other equipment. If the NATO countries finally perceive Ukraine's war against Russia as their own war and use all the possibilities of countering the Russian Federation, then Russian aggression is doomed to failure.
- Military assistance
In the period from 01.02.2023 to 15.02.2023, it became known about the transfer of the following weapons to Ukraine:
Spain:
- 20 M113 armored personnel carriers
USA:
- BREM M88A2 Hercules
- additional ammunition for the HIMARS rocket launcher system;
- additional 155 mm ammunition;
- additional 120 mm mortar ammunition;
- 190 heavy machine guns with thermal imaging sights and ammunition for combating unmanned aerial systems;
- 181 cars with mine protection;
- 250 Javelin complexes;
- 2 thousand anti-tank missiles;
- Claymore anti-personnel ammunition;
- explosive munitions;
- equipment for cold weather.
- two HAWK air defense systems;
- anti-aircraft guns and ammunition;
- anti-drone systems;
- equipment for the integration of Western air defense means into the Ukrainian defense system;
- equipment for Ukrainian existing air defense equipment;
- 4 radars for air surveillance
- 20 anti-mortar radars;
- Puma unmanned systems;
- high-precision GLSDB missiles
EU:
- 13 heavy-duty trucks for military transport
- 94 heavy-duty trucks
- 50 ambulances
FRG:
- 2 Gepard
- 6 thousand anti-aircraft ammunition
Lithuania:
- Radar
- L70 anti-aircraft guns
Sweden:
- demining equipment
- NLAW complexes
- 51 AFV CV90
Source: Mil.ua
On February 14, a meeting was held within the "Rammstein" format. The countries that are part of the coalition formed by the USA to support Ukraine announced the provision of additional aid and confirmed past commitments. A total of 54 countries took part in the meeting. Contrary to Ukraine's expectations, the partners did not announce the transfer of the planes. However, the process of coordinating the training of Ukrainian pilots is already underway and is gradually developing. We can expect the provision of aircraft to Ukraine in the future. In addition to aircraft, Ukraine needs tanks, and the process of providing them also at the current stage does not meet the expectations and needs of the Armed Forces. According to US Defense Minister Lloyd Austin, Germany, Poland, Canada, Portugal, Spain, Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands plan to transfer Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand reported that four Leopard 2A4 tanks, which Canada promised to hand over to Ukraine, are already in Poland, and Ukrainian servicemen are already training on them. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre announced that Norway will provide Ukraine with 8 Leopard 2 tanks and up to 4 special purpose tanks. The "tank package" will include the transfer of ammunition and spare parts. The head of the Pentagon also reminded that the USA, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands are jointly transferring more than 90 T-72 tanks in addition to Poland's decision to provide its T-72s. The decision to transfer 90 T-72 tanks to Ukraine was made last year. Britain is handing over a company of Challenger main battle tanks and "together with several countries is looking for sources to supply Ukraine with additional ammunition." At the same time, the Minister of Defense of Germany believes that the Europeans are unlikely to be able to quickly form a battalion of modern Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine. Already after the Ramstein meeting, the Minister of Defense of Poland Mariusz Blaszczak announced that the Leopard tanks, which the allies promised to transfer to Kyiv, will be transferred to Ukraine in March.
Source: European truth
Sources:
1. Генеральний Штаб ЗСУ, дата звернення: 25.02.2023,
URL: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua?locale=uk_UA
2. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 22, 2023,
URL: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-22-2023
3. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 23, 2023,
URL: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-23-2023
4. Генеральний Штаб ЗСУ, дата звернення: 25.02.2023,
URL: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua?locale=uk_UA