Photo: Destroyed Russian equipment near Kyiv
Source: Espreso

10 days after the beginning of a full-scale Russian offensive, it can already be argued that Putin's blitzkrieg has failed. Ukraine holds the defense in all directions, the enemy is demoralized, and the inhabitants of Ukrainian cities openly demonstrate their disagreement with the occupation, go to protests and block the roads for the equipment of the invaders. The Ukrainian people are effectively defending themselves and destroying the enemy on a scale that Russia has never experienced in its history. During the 10 years of the war in Afghanistan, the USSR lost up to 15,000 people. About 5,000 Russian servicemen were killed in the first Chechen war. According to official figures, from October 1999 to December 2002, the total losses of the federal forces amounted to 4,572 people killed and 15,549 wounded. In Georgia, the losses of the Russian Federation, according to the Russians, numbered dozens of people, in Syria – about 300 people.[1] In Ukraine, in the first 10 days, the Russian Federation lost more than 11 000 military personnel.

According to the Pentagon, 90% of the combat force deployed around Ukraine has already crossed the border. They launched more than 480 missiles on Ukrainian territory and used most of the Kalibr cruise missiles.[2] With a decrease in the number of cruise missiles, the Russian occupation forces are using the tactics of destroying infrastructure and launching missile and bomb attacks on populated areas, disregarding the norms of international humanitarian law.

The Russian Federation has not provided the necessary communications to support its troops. Tanks that have advanced in the absence of fuel are converted into tractors. The Russian leadership has not established an effective supply system, so the Russian Armed Forces are unable to continue the offensive on the capital. According to Olexiy Arestovich, Russian troops are currently regrouping after replenishing their reserves. One of the priorities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine now is to strike at columns carrying fuel for Russia. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine called on citizens to strike at such columns. Thus, Russia is losing its offensive potential, and at the same time, its initiative. In several areas, the Armed Forces of Ukraine even started a counter-attack. In the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, Ukrainian soldiers reached the Russian-Ukrainian border, and in the Donetsk direction, servicemen of the 95th Separate Assault Brigade stormed the city of Horlivka, which has been occupied by Russia since 2014, and consolidated positions on its outskirts.

Although, Russia also has tactical achievements. First of all in the southern direction. The Armed Forces concentrated its main forces on the Siversky and Slobozhansky directions. Therefore, the armed forces of the Russian Federation managed to capture a number of settlements and the first major Ukrainian city – Kherson. Mariupol surrounded by the occupiers is in a difficult position. It the last city preventing the creation of a land corridor to the Crimean peninsula. The Armed Forces now also carries out tasks on prevention of surrounding of the city of Mykolaiv.

The Russian-Ukrainian war is likely to drag on for months. After the active phase of hostilities, the dynamics of the conflict will decrease, but shelling of Ukrainian cities with the help of artillery and aircraft will continue. In this regard, Ukraine's ongoing arms support from international partners is important. First, according to Mykola Bielieskov, a Ukrainian military analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, the Armed Forces needs ammunition for «Grad» MLRS as well as 152 mm and 122 mm howitzers. Such artillery supplies are available from Central and Eastern European countries, which are protected in the face of NATO's enhanced eastern flank and can therefore afford such assistance. Secondly, one of the most pressing issues for Ukraine is protection from the sky. Russia dominates the air, which provides the ability to strike at Ukrainian cities, kill civilians and destroy the military. The Ukrainian government is promoting the initiative to close the skies over Ukraine.

Since not all NATO member countries yet support this initiative because of the fear of a direct clash with the Russian Federation, in parallel, Ukraine needs to be provided with more Stinger MANPADS, aviation and missile defense systems. According to the British analytical center RUSI, Russia has not yet used the full potential of its Aerospace Forces[3], so the Ukrainian armed forces should be prepared for a possible increase in air strikes. It should be noted that the number of anti-aircraft missiles of the Ukrainian Soviet missile defense systems is limited. Therefore, it is necessary to arrange the supply of additional reserves from the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. MiG-29, Su-25, as well as American A-10 attack aircraft are called among the aircraft that can be transferred to Ukraine. German political scientist Andreas Umland has even proposed a strategy to create a no-fly zone over Ukraine without the actual intervention of the North Atlantic Alliance. Firstly, it is necessary to secure a couple of West Ukrainian airports with enough anti-aircraft installations to make them usable. Secondly, to present Ukraine several dozen decommissioned Western fighter planes (F-14, F-15, F-16, F-18...), and bring them to these airports. Thirdly, to find several Western dozen volunteer airforce veterans, and give them Ukrainian citizenship. Fourthly, to bring these new Ukrainian citizens to the secured West Ukrainian airports, and airplanes. Fifthly, to let these Ukrainian citizens with Ukrainian fighter planes fly sorties from West Ukrainian airports over Ukrainian state territory. No NATO troops or NATO territory needed.[4]

So far, the Ukrainian people are defending not only the right to their existence and independence, but also defending the whole of Europe from revisionist Russia. The support of partner countries plays an important role in Ukraine's ability to repel the aggressor. However, partner countries must be as resolute in their support as the Ukrainian people are in the struggle for their country. Only then will the European continent have a chance for a peaceful existence.

Sources:
1. Україна стала для них пеклом: порівнюємо втрати росіян у різних війнах, 02.03.2022,
URL: https://novyny.live/politics/ukraina-stala-dlia-nikh-adom-sravnivaem-poteri-rossiian-v-raznykh-voinakh-41480.html

2. Росія завела в Україну 90% зібраних військ і планує взяти Київ – Білий дім, 03.03.2022,
URL: https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2022/03/3/7135187/

3. Justin Bronk, The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force, 28.02.2022,
URL: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force

4.  Andreas Umland, 04.03.2022,
URL: https://www.facebook.com/andreas.umland.1/posts/10223838189756160