On May 23, an unprecedented event, which deepened the crisis between the Republic of Belarus and democratic countries, occurred. The regime of Aleksandr Lukashenko forcibly landed a civilian plane of the Ryanair airline, which was flying over the territory of Belarus on its way from Athens to Vilnius. Lukashenko resorted to such illegal actions under the pretext that there was a bomb on the plane, which Hamas allegedly planned to blow up over Vilnius. As the self-proclaimed president of Belarus stated at a meeting with parliamentarians, members of the constitutional commission and representatives of the state administration in Minsk, the message about the mining of the Ryanair aircraft came from Switzerland. However, the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, in turn, stated that the country was in no way involved in the report of Ryanair mining, which was forcibly landed at Minsk airport by Belarusian fighter jet. The blatantly false and absurd statements of the Belarusian leadership about the hijacking only confirm the fact that their goal was to arrest Roman Protasevich, a former editor of the opposition media NEXTA, who played a major role in organizing and coordinating post-election protests in Belarus through a media resource. In addition to Protasevich, Belarusian security forces detained his girlfriend, Russian citizen Sofia Sapega, who is suspected by the Belarusian authorities of «committing crimes between August and September 2020». Protasevich could face the death penalty if he is charged with terrorism in Belarus.
Alexander Lukashenko, by his actions, undermined the basis of the safety of civilian flights. In fact, now airlines cannot be sure that the planes flying in the airspace of Belarus are protected. The interception of a civilian aircraft by the Belarusian authorities directly violates the provisions of Art. 3 bis of the Chicago Convention, which clearly states, «... every State must refrain from resorting to the use of weapons against civil aircraft in flight and that, in case of interception, the lives of persons on board and the safety of aircraft must not be endangered», moreover, «... [the state] is entitled to require the landing at some designated airport of a civil aircraft [only] if it flying above its territory without authority or if there are reasonable grounds to conclude that it is being used for any purpose inconsistent with the aims of this Convention».[1]
A blatant violation of international law provoked an immediate reaction from the European Union. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the situation unacceptable on the same day and warned that such actions should have consequences. The corresponding reaction was expressed by the President of the European Council Charles Michel and the High Representative of the European Union Joseph Borrell. After that, Belarus became almost the main topic at the summit of the European Union, at which the leaders of the 27 member states made a political decision to ban flights from EU countries over Belarus and to suspend flights between Belarusian airlines and the European Union. EU leaders also called on Lukashenko to release Roman Protasevich and Sofia Sapega. In addition, European Union leaders decided to expand personal and sectoral economic sanctions against Belarus and called on the International Civil Aviation Organization to launch an investigation. The EU has also expressed its readiness to provide 3 billion euros in assistance to Belarus in the event of its «democratic transformation» to help stabilize the Belarusian economy, reform institutions to make them more democratic and help to increase country’s resilience. Apparently, this financial assistance was not announced for the current Lukashenko government, which is becoming increasingly dependent on Russia after the crisis caused by the hijacking. Decisions on EU sanctions were taken unexpectedly quickly and turned out to be quite tough. The main blow came to Belavia, which had already suffered serious damage as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. In 2020, the company's passenger traffic decreased to 1.7 million people, which is more than 58% less than in 2019.[2] Belavia had plans to increase profits in the future providing services to passengers traveling through Minsk to European cities and Russia, but from now on the European route is completely closed for it. Belarus has been a popular transit destination for Ukrainians and Russians since 2014. However, Ukraine also did not ignore the manifestation of state terrorism by the Lukashenko regime and became one of the first countries to react to the interception of the Ryanair plane. On May 24, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy instructed the government to prepare a decision on the termination of flights between Ukraine and Belarus. The corresponding decision was made the next day. Therefore, here Belavia also loses the opportunity to make a profit. Now Belavia's flights abroad are only possible through the territory of Russia. Lukashenko has already received a «friendly offer» from the Russian side about the possibility of Belavia to conduct passenger flights to the territory of the occupied Crimea.
Lukashenko's actions reminded the Ukrainian authorities of the need to reconsider the perception of the Lukashenko regime and to prudently assess the range of threats that exist on Ukraine's northern border, which was not done during the war with Russia. An increasing of the enemy's border by 1,084 kilometers is not a pessimistic prospect, but an objective reality. Russia and Belarus work closely in the military sphere, constantly conducting large-scale joint military exercises, most of which take place on Belarusian territory. Due to Lukashenko's actions, Belarus's relations with the West and Ukraine have deteriorated sharply, and the destructive dynamics of relations are hitting Belarus' economy as a whole, while Russia's influence in the country is increasing.
Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov said that the situation with the forced landing of a Ryanair aircraft in Minsk has all the signs of a Russian special services operation. This information is confirmed by the American edition «Vice», which contacted a representative of the Greek Ministry of Internal Affairs. On condition of anonymity, he informed that three officers of the special services with Russian passports, working in the interests of the KGB, were pursuing the Belarusian journalist Roman Protasevich during his vacation in Crete. Thus, Vladimir Putin is successfully realizing the strategic goal of absorbing Belarus. After the crisis caused by the hijacking, Belarus is effectively losing its airspace, isolating itself from the West and being drawn into Russia's orbit, and Lukashenko finally losses the opportunity to maneuver between Russia and the West. At the same time, a possible decision to conduct flights to the occupied Crimea ultimately destroys the already difficult relations between Ukraine and the Lukashenko regime, from which only Putin will benefit.
According to the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the United States (2015-2019) Valeriy Chaly, despite the close economic ties with the Republic of Belarus, Ukraine has no choice but to act honestly and jointly with other states. According to the diplomat, for Ukraine in order not to be under the threat of an attack by Russia from the territory of Belarus, fundamental political changes should take place in the neighboring country, because now the influence of the Russian Federation on the situation in Belarus is only increasing. «Will Russia's influence increase? Yes, it will increase. It will continue to grow, here is a situation when it will no longer be possible to play - we must make sure that Belarus changes. And the three billion promised to the Belarusian authorities, and today's statement of the Belarusian opposition about new protests and demonstrations, and statements of public organizations of Ukraine on the support and release of political prisoners. This is a new stage, which should end, after all, with a change in Belarus - this is the only way to guarantee something for the future now».[3]
Lukashenko's actions are yet another manifestation of the crisis of the rules-based international order. The interception of a civilian aircraft by a Belarusian fighter jet once again reminds of the need to create more effective implementation and control mechanisms within the framework of international law, including an effective sanctions mechanism for its violators. Also, it is worth remembering the role of the Russian Federation in the existence of the Lukashenko regime. Therefore, if the member states of the European Union and NATO will decide to resolutely fight the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, it is necessary to impose sanctions not only against Lukashenko and his entourage, but also against the Russian Federation, especially given the involvement of Russian special services in the operation to hijack the plane and arrest Protasevich. Actions of the self-proclaimed president of Belarus reminded the Ukrainian authorities of the need to reconsider the perception of the Lukashenko regime and to prudently assess the range of threats that exist on Ukraine's northern border, which was not done during the war with Russia. An increasing the enemy's border by 1,084 kilometers is not a pessimistic prospect, but an objective reality. Russia and Belarus work closely in the military sphere, constantly conducting large-scale joint military exercises, most of which take place on Belarusian territory. Due to Lukashenko's actions, Belarus's relations with the West and Ukraine have deteriorated sharply, and the destructive dynamics of relations are hitting Belarus' economy as a whole, while Russia's influence in the country is increasing.
The leadership of Ukraine, in turn, must coordinate policy towards Belarus with international partners, in particular, within the framework of the «Lublin Triangle», continue to work towards diversifying products that are still imported from the Republic of Belarus and strengthen the defense capability of the northern borders of the state which becomes another direction of a possible Russian military offensive.
- https://yur-gazeta.com/dumka-eksperta/diyi-bilorusi-pryamo-porushuyut-polozhennya-chikazkoyi-konvenciyi.html
- https://www.reuters.com/article/orutp-belarus-politics-belavia-idRUKCN2DC0F2-ORUTP
- https://www.5.ua/polityka/ranishe-my-viryly-shcho-rosiiski-viiska-ne-proidut-cherez-pivnich-na-nash-kordon-chalyi-pro-sytuatsiiu-v-bilorusi-245518.html