Photo: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz
Source: Office of the President of Ukraine

At the beginning of the year, partner countries announced the provision of a significant amount of weapons: Marder, Stryker, Bradley AFVs. This technique will best help Ukraine destroy endless waves of Russian infantry offensives in the East. However, Ukraine needs tanks and aircraft for offensive actions. For more effective defense and offensive, Ukraine also needs long-range missiles. The taboo on the transfer of tanks was de facto lifted by Emmanuel Macron with the transfer of the AMX-10, and finally confirmed by Rishi Sunak - with the announcement of the provision of "Challanger" tanks. After that, decisions were made regarding the German "Leopard" and American "Abrams" tanks.

Great Britain agreed to train Ukrainian pilots and this is already an important decision, because having trained pilots, Ukraine will have a serious additional argument regarding the urgency of transferring aviation. However, this is not enough. Great Britain will train Ukrainian pilots on Typhoon aircraft. According to The Wall Street Journal, Great Britain can provide Ukraine in the best case with only about 30 Tranche 1 Eurofighter Typhoon fighters. The best option would be to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 aircraft, the most common fourth-generation fighters. More than 4,600 such planes were created, which would make it easier to form a coalition of states that could transfer this equipment. However, the US still refuses to take this step, and NATO allies are waiting for the decision of the White House. So far, the agreement of Great Britain has not affected the USA and other partners as hoped in Kyiv, however, Ukrainian diplomacy continues to work in this direction and eventually Ukraine should receive planes, because the prospect of effective offensive actions and the lives of Ukrainian defenders depend on this decision.

The situation with tanks also remains ambiguous. According to The Times, only a quarter of the approximately 320 promised tanks will be delivered to Ukraine in April. The terms of delivery and the real amount of equipment that the partners are ready to send to Ukraine in the coming months remain unclear. For example, it will not be a surprise if it turns out that of about 50 spare Leopard tanks of the Spanish armed forces, only 5 will be operational. The Russian-Ukrainian war allows NATO countries to rearm and there is no doubt that at the end of the Russian invasion, the North Atlantic Alliance will be technologically superior to the Russian Federation. However, Ukraine is currently paying with lives of its citizens, protecting the eastern flank of Europe from Russian expansion. And the equipment that is in service with European countries is now needed precisely in Ukraine. At the same time, last year's needs for 300 tanks, which Valery Zaluzhnyy defined in his article, are no longer relevant, because the Russians have strengthened their positions, mobilized the military and prepared more equipment. Realizing that phone conversations and public appeals will not speed up these much-needed weapons, in February Volodymyr Zelenskyy decided to personally meet with the leaders of European states in order to convince their partners to increase, and most importantly, speed up the transfer of weapons necessary for the offensive.

The President's trip was caused primarily by the difficult situation at the front and the urgency to change the dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Therefore, the main topics of such an emergency round of discussions became military aid. If Russia is not defeated in Ukraine, the state of European security, as it was before February 24, 2022, will remain a thing of the past. The more opportunities are given to the Russian Federation to adapt to the war and deplete the economic resources of NATO countries, the greater the probability that the security order on the continent will not be restored, economic development will slow down and then the confrontation with the axis of authoritarian states will become even more difficult. In order to convey this signal to the main Western European states, at the beginning of February, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled abroad, where he met with the leaders of Great Britain, France and Germany. He began his tour with a visit to London, where he met with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, spoke before the British Parliament and held a meeting with King Charles III. As a result of the meeting between the President of Ukraine and the Prime Minister of Great Britain, the "Declaration of Unity" was signed - a political document in which official London confirmed its intention to continue supporting Ukraine against the background of Russian aggression. Great Britain has already provided Ukraine with 2.3 billion in military support during the invasion. This is more than France and Germany have provided. Britain's position on Russia's war against Ukraine was clear and understandable even before February 24, when NLAW anti-tank missile systems and other weapons were delivered to Kyiv on the eve of the Russian invasion. While the leaders of Germany and France consistently keep leaving room for different interpretations of their position.

Understanding this, Volodymyr Zelenskyy arranged talks with Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, which took place in the evening of the same day, immediately after the events at the Foggy Albion. At a joint press conference before the negotiations, Emmanuel Macron said that it is necessary to ensure the victory of Ukraine, for this Paris intends to adapt and increase military aid, continue supplies in accordance with the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Olaf Scholz, in turn, used more restrained rhetoric and declared that Russia should not win. Taking into account the fact that Russia's goal is the destruction of Ukrainian statehood, the occupation of only a part of the Ukrainian territory is already a loss for the Russian Federation, and therefore, the ambitions of the Federal Republic of Germany, in the words of Scholz, are not high enough.

It is significant that later in February, Olaf Scholz at the Munich Security Conference stated the importance of continuing aid to Ukraine, but added stressing the risk of escalation. Important decisions are difficult for the chancellor of Germany, and the fear of a direct confrontation with the Russian Federation is still felt in the context of support of Ukraine. Even in the matter of creating a tank coalition, Germany, the country producing the Leopard tanks, did not show leadership.

However, by artificially restraining the increase in the amount of aid to Ukraine, and therefore its ability to resist Russian troops and return territories, the partner countries create another risk - not to defeat Russia. Ukraine's victory is not guaranteed yet and the war may drag on. If the Russian-Ukrainian war continues after 2024 or 2025, European societies may forget about the way of life they had before. The EU states will not be able to remain safe while there is a war in the geographical center of Europe. Even the establishment of a cease-fire regime will not guarantee an improvement in the general situation, because for Ukraine it would mean the loss of territory, citizens, their rights, lack of foreign investment, being in a gray zone. Russia will be able to use the temporary ceasefire to restore forces and launch a new offensive under better conditions. Such a prospect does not satisfy either Ukraine or the EU and its leaders: France and Germany.

Emmanuel Macron still hopes to bring Russia back into the European security system. It is worth considering the traditional French anti-Americanism and the desire for greater European autonomy. Although the idea of an autonomous Europe is generally positive, the desire to involve Russia in ensuring the implementation of this concept should not hinder the desire of partners to help Ukraine defeat the Russian Federation. In addition, the very concept of a "sovereign" Europe is impossible in conditions where France's main partner in Europe, Germany, avoids leadership in Europe, in particular with regard to supporting Ukraine, and tries to act after the US. The main goal of the USA and the EU should not be to save Putin's face, to avoid escalation, or to avoid the collapse of the Russian Federation, but to ensure the victory of Ukraine. In Western expert circles, a discussion about the future in which Russia will disintegrate is gradually emerging. The presence of a clear vision of such a development of events would have a positive impact on EU and US policy, as in this case the leaders of Ukraine's partner countries would not have fear due to the unpredictability of the world's largest nuclear power.

Zelenskyy trip for talks with European leaders took place against the backdrop of heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine. In the conditions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine need for more equipment to carry out a counter-offensive, Ukraine needs a clear position and political will of the leadership of the main partner countries. Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron are the leaders of the largest continental powers in Europe, which provided definitely large amounts of aid to Ukraine, but they do not meet the urgent needs of the Ukrainian army. So far, there are no concrete actions that would indicate that a personal meeting with the President of Ukraine convinced the leaders of Germany and France to increase military aid. However, the more the partners delay the supply of tanks, aircraft and long-range missiles, the more citizens Ukraine will lose, while European states will lose economically from the prolongation of the conflict, and the sooner European leaders understand this, the less their countries will suffer from the consequences of Russian aggression.